Stock market lore suggests that share prices often mirror changes in women's hemlines. In other words, when skirts and dresses are short, reflecting an adventurous joie de vivre, it coincides with a stirring of investors' bullish spirits, while a more conservative approach to fashion parallels defensive portfolio shifts and diminshed risk-taking.
More broadly speaking, observers have often posited a link between the nation's social mood and the economy's ups and downs. In fact, the science of Socionomics, pioneered by analyst and newsletter publisher Robert Prechter, goes so far as to argue that it is the former that drives the latter.
Regardless, a few recent developments suggest we may be experiencing a transition that will ultimately be felt on Wall Street and Main Street.
In "Fifth Ave. Chic: New York Designers Turn Down the Volume for Fall 2007 in Favour of Fashions that Are Slim and Trim," the Ottawa Citizen reports that the fashion world is changing tack.
Their models are still unnaturally thin, but designers in New York have at least begun creating clothes that suit the real world.
Not necessarily for women of any size or shape, mind you. Topflight designers whose work was showcased at the Big Apple's recent fashion week are still catering to ladies whose idea of lunch is a green salad and a bottle of designer water -- or who work out incessantly.
But in attitude and maturity, the collections for this coming fall and winter showed a distinct bent toward elegant clothing for women of good taste, instead of brash twentysomethings with money to burn and a gullible fashion sense.
Banish the word "volume" from your vocabulary; the new look is slim, fitted, long and lean -- no more swaddling layers that, if taken literally, would make the wearer look like a bag lady. Instead, the new icon is Andy Warhol's muse Edie Sedgwick -- coincidentally the subject of the just-released movie Factory Girl, starring real-life trendsetter Sienna Miller. The movie has had mixed reviews, but the fashion press in New York had mostly good things to say about the runway clothes.
Designers who have delved into this new lean silhouette include Marc Jacobs, considered the New York designer to watch for the hottest new trends. Jacobs, who launched the volume craze last season, has pulled his punches with a new collection harkening back to the early days of Coco Chanel. Other stars of the week included Ralph Lauren, Narciso Rodriguez, J. Mendel, Michael Kors and the youthful duo Proenza Schouler, all known for their penchant for classical design.
Even streetwear king Tommy Hilfiger, whose traditional preppy look has fallen out of favour with young shoppers, showed a collection he described as "more classic, refined, more luxurious and well-thought out. It is without logos, without the red, white and blue, without a lot of bells and whistles. We are more dressed-up." And, hopefully, more mature.
Other common themes included narrow trousers, slim dresses and fitted suits, a colour palette of rich reds and greens, spicy yellows, teal, plum, grey, winter white and beige, and glossy fabric, fur trim and lots of hats -- particularly cloches.
Skirt lengths covered a wide range, but there seemed to be fewer knees on view, perhaps to hide the fact that so many of the models' were wider than their thighs. Despite an initiative by the Council of Fashion Designers of America to improve models' eating habits by offering them healthy snacks, free counselling about eating disorders and banning smoking backstage, many designers -- especially the more famous ones -- continued to use unhealthy-looking girls in their shows.
The New York theater district is witnessing a similar kind of transition, according to the Wall Street Journal. In "Bleakness Over Broadway," the newspaper notes that "for spring, theaters shift to serious plays; From 'Spamalot' to war, orphans and Nixon."
Child slavery, life on the front, a writer coping with her husband's death, the downfall of a combative radio host -- hardly the uplifting, toe-tapping themes that attract tourists to Broadway.
Yet that's what theaters will serve up this spring, as producers place a big bet on serious -- even somber -- "straight" plays instead of the lighthearted musicals that helped propel the industry to record revenue in 2006. Nine commercially produced plays (as opposed to those from nonprofit theaters) will open this season, compared with just three commercial musicals. New plays include Joan Didion's "The Year of Magical Thinking," about her husband's sudden demise; "Radio Golf," August Wilson's work about a black politician; and "Frost/Nixon," in which the former president talks about his misdeeds.
The weighty fare goes against the conventional wisdom that Broadway's future lies in musicals -- and it risks scaring off crowds. "I'm terrified," says producer Jeffrey Richards, citing both the tone and the number of plays set to open. Mr. Richards is putting on "Talk Radio," Eric Bogosian's play about the controversial radio host, and "Radio Golf."
Producers are shifting toward plays in part because last fall wasn't auspicious for new musicals: The $10 million production of "High Fidelity" garnered nasty reviews and closed after a week, while the critically acclaimed "Spring Awakening" and "Grey Gardens" are only modest hits. Theater insiders also say the industry has just about run out of well-regarded musicals to revive. "People are starting to look at old plays now the way they were looking at old musicals eight or 10 years ago," says Jack Viertel, artistic director of Manhattan's Jujamcyn Theaters. Moreover, plays are much cheaper to mount -- $2 million to $3 million, versus $10 million or more for musicals.
A report from the Associated Press suggests that even traditionally upbeat greeting-card makers sense a change in the air.
Buying a greeting card for someone's birthday, anniversary or if they're feeling under the weather is pretty straightforward. But what if they're undergoing chemotherapy or struggling with depression? "Get Well Soon" probably won't cut it.
Likewise, most cards lining the store shelves don't work on occasions as someone leaving an abusive spouse, undergoing drug rehab or declaring their sexual orientation.
Hallmark Cards Inc., which has built its $4.2 billion empire on sentiments for life's happier times, is releasing a new line of cards that will speak to those and other situations that the company says have either been ignored by greeting card companies or received only a smattering of attention from niche players.
For illness: "Cancer is a villain who doesn't play fair ... but it can't dim your spirit, and it can't silence prayer."
For eating disorders: "All I want is for you to be healthy -- healthy and happy with yourself. Please take it one day at a time until you are."
For depression: "When the world gets heavy, remember, I'm here to help carry it with you."
The 176-card collection, called Journeys, went on sale Thursday at Hallmark's 3,800 Gold Crown stores.
Cynthia Musick, the editorial director who oversaw Journeys, said the cards' writing provides more personal messages of support, encouragement and hope, for which the company's research showed there was a demand.
Theresa Steffens, an assistant product manager at Hallmark, said a majority of online and focus group respondents said they couldn't find what they were looking for when needing an encouragement card.
"Either the consumer said they were walking away from the display or they were just unhappy with the card that they purchased, so we saw this as a huge opportunity," Steffens said.
Customers said they wanted cards dealing with more real-life situations.
"They said, 'I don't know what to say during a difficult time, so I don't say anything at all,'" Steffens said. So again there's an opportunity there to help them talk through these tough situations that they're dealing with and to foster that communication."
The $7 billion greeting card industry already brims with tiny niche players who make and sell cards dealing with such things as serious illness or thanking caregivers, said Barbara Miller, a spokeswoman for the Washington, D.C.-based Greeting Card Association.
But she said none of them have the ability to reach customers searching for those types of cards across the country.
"My guess is it's a breakthrough for a large company like a Hallmark," she said.
The new line includes cards tackling cancer diagnoses, quitting smoking, caring for an aged parent, miscarriage, anniversaries of loss, loved ones in the military and traumatic loss, such as someone dying in an accident or homicide.
These are all anecdotal reports, of course, and they may not necessarily be signaling tough times ahead for either the economy or the markets. But taken together with other recent economic, financial, and geopolitical developments, they suggest that now is probably not the time to be buying miniskirts and dancing in the rain. Or, for that matter, buying stocks.
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