Meltdown Imminent?

Over at The Big Picture, my friend Barry Ritholtz has written a post highlighting the latest views of Albert Edwards, one of the few Wall Street strategists who doesn't deserve to have quote marks around that particular designation (for new visitors to Financial Armageddon, I often employ this literary device because most of these so-called experts are completely clueless about strategy or anything else that requires an understanding of finance, economics and markets). For what it's worth, I've written a few posts highlighting Edwards' views, including "Here Comes Fredddiiieee!!!" and "The Bone Rattler." Anyway, here is what Barry had to say:

When people try to figure out what was the cause of today's 344 point whackage, one of the items they will point to will be SocGen's alert today from Albert Edwards:

***Alert****Economic and equity market meltdown imminent****Alert***

Last week saw the publication of Q2 US whole economy profits data. They were shockingly bad. Core measures of profitability are in free-fall and have now reached a tipping point, where corporate activity could easily implode. We have also reached the point where companies give up ‘manipulating’ their profits higher and admit they are actually in free-fall. A combination of economic and reported profits slumping will catalyse the next equity downleg.

I always look askance at such precisely timed alerts -- firstly, because timing markets this precisely is extremely difficult, and second, if memory serves, this is not the first such alert from SocGen.

As to the fundamentals of Edwards argument, he is spot on. Note our prior mention of the SocGen team was back in June (“Appalling” Market Fundamentals, Not Inflation, Is The Problem).

Profits Lead Stocks

chart courtesy of Société Générale>

Here's a brief excerpt:

US Q2 whole economy profits were shockingly poor. The headline data (post-tax) were down 6% yoy - bad but not a disaster. But our preferred measure of underlying profits (domestic non-financial economic profits -- full explanation later) is down a surprisingly sharp 17½% yoy. The last 4 quarter's average is down 12% yoy (see chart below). Typically we have now reached the point in the cycle where companies reach the end of the road on earnings manipulation and have to admit to their shareholders how bad things really are, sending reported profits diving.  James Montier's recent piece "Cooking the Books" suggests that some companies may indeed be doing what the title implies. But analysts currently see no prospect of a non-financial profits slowdown, let alone recession (see table below). Why? Because companies have not yet owned up to the mess they are in and told the analysts to downgrade their numbers!

We are at a very similar point to the end of 2000, just before corporate capitulation sent reported profits and the economy diving and the equity market collapsed.

Economists typically model corporate profits as a residual, with it dropping out of their economic models as a function of what is happening to the economy overall. We have always believed though that corporate profits are a key driver of the economic cycle, rather than just the result of it. Historically, recessions are 'caused' (in an accounting sense) by the corporate sector. As profits decline, after a point companies finally bite the bullet and business investment slumps (see chart below). Historically, the evolution of pre-tax domestic nonfinancial profits proves to be the best explanation for company's domestic spending activity.

Hat tip: Paul Kredrosky

Source:
Global Strategy Weekly
Albert Edwards
4 September 2008

Comments

[roger]

A lot of economic experts are 100% clueless on the economic reality,and most of the rest are 50/50 and swing according to witch the wind blows and the reason is simple: all the BS they dish out is exclusively on the studies of money only,
when in reality all of the economie is latched & entwined with LABOR.
Money doesn't create real wealth, LABOR DOES!any study to be valid must include this total relationship.

[Lin]

The meltdown did not happen thanks to Treasury stepping up to bail out Freddie and Fannie. Isn't Capitalism great, or what.

[Vespatian]

If you think this is contained to the US - think again.

Here is the best rant I've yet seen and it's based in the UK:

http://www.bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/