Change Is In the Air

Those who believe -- like I do -- that the American era is drawing to a close are often labeled as permabears or troublemakers -- or worse.

It doesn't matter that the signs of waning U.S. economic, political, social and military influence are there for all to see. Or that the world's longtime superpower is facing serious challenges -- and aggressive challengers -- on every front. Or that change is the only constant when it comes to the long-run fortunes of nations and empires.

Instead, such statements are seen as heresy by those who believe that our standing is and will remain as strong as it was.

Under the circumstances, it must be something of a surprise to these individuals when a cross-section of American intelligence analysts comes out and suggests the best is behind us.

In "US Influence to Decline, NIC Intelligence Report Predicts," the Telegraph provides a snapshot of the just-released, 120-page report.

The political, economic and military influence of the United States will substantially decline over the next two decades, according to a report by the country's leading intelligence organisation, which forecasts an unpredictable world in which the advance of western-style democracy is far from guaranteed.

The National Intelligence Council analysis Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World will serve as a sobering reminder to President-Elect Barack Obama of the challenges he faces leading a country that might no longer be able to "call the shots alone".

The use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely by 2025, the report found, forecasting a tense, unstable world shadowed by war.

"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons."

Mr Obama will assume power in January with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a resurgent Russia, an Iran determined to build a nuclear bomb and instability over the Palestinian territories.

The report also predicted that some African and South Asian states may wither away altogether, and organised crime could take over at least one state in central Europe.

Struggling to find a bright spot, researchers concluded that terrorism could decline if "economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced".

However, it concluded that "opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power programmes expand".

Based on a survey of trends by analysts from all US intelligence agencies around the world, it was more pessimistic about status of the world's superpower than the four previous outlooks that have been made public.

"The international system, as constructed following the Second World War, will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, an historic transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of non-state actors," the report said.

"Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength – even in the military realm, will decline and US leverage will become more strained."

The report's authors said "we do not believe that we are headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system", but gave warning that "the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks".

Researchers predicted China and India were likely to join the United States atop a multi-polar world and compete for influence. Russia's potential was less certain, but Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

The current financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing, the report found, predicting that the dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a "first among equals".

The growing relative power of "businesses, tribes, religious organisations and criminal networks" was likely to continue, it concluded.

The analysts predicted that better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power would provide opportunities for a quick and low-cost transition from dependence on oil.

Officials said the report was timed to be ready for Barack Obama when he takes office on Jan 20.

[Editor's note: A few weeks later, my take on things will also be available, in a book entitled When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era.]

Comments

[farang]

Sounds more like a paper written to justify the NIC existence than anything else. "Rogue states"? Like Israel, who ignores each and every UN Resolution against it? The one that refuses to sign the non-nuclear proliferation agreement? (Iran has, btw)

The one now starving men,women, children inside a walled Ghetto called Gaza, while refusing to allow medicine, fuel for power or food to be deliverd? That Rogue Nation?

The one that stole US nuclear secrets and used them to arm themselves and sold them to China? THAT "rogue nation"?

"Terrorist groups"? Like the ones that rigged with charges the WTC 7 building and collapsed it? (you know the one Silverstein leased then insured for billions a month before the "attacks" in the event of "terrorism"?)

If I had insured my wife a month before we went fishing, to pay me billions if she died fishing, then she "drowned by accident" while fishing with me, WHO THE HELL would be the PRIME SUSPECT? ("So, I told them (The NYFD), maybe the best thing to do, is (have The NYFD) to pull it." Silverstein on PBS interview).

Gee, so Silverstein KNEW "terrorists" had rigged the WTC 7 for the NYFD to "pull"? How very curious.

Please.

"Rogue nations and terrorist groups"? Or the ONES THAT BENEFITED?

[Fu]

Riots in Columbia over failed pyramid schemes

Colombia declared a state of emergency Monday to crack down on illegal investment schemes that lured millions of people with promises of improbably high payouts.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27772521/

[Fu]

Construction work has stopped on Europe's tallest building after developers said their lofty ambitions had been hit by the global financial crisis, a Russian news agency reported Friday.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/11/21/russia.tower/index.html

[Justin MacArthur]

It's a sobering economic pictures these days. One only needs to turn on the TV to see the turmoil the world's markets are in right now. The next few decades will certainly bring shifts in global powers.

- Justin MacArthur

[i on the ball patriot]

Nation states have always been a construct of the ruling elite. They are now, as a result of a global neocon financial coup, having their economies intentionally tanked so as as to create a ruler and ruled world in perpetual conflict. The cheap credit and counterfeit derivative products inserted into the global economy have been by design and they are working well as deflation grips the planet and neighbor fights with neighbor.

It is time for humanity to permanently take down the super wealthy elite. Happiness will follow like a loving puppy ...

[roger]

(Those who believe -- like I do -- that the American era is drawing to a close are often labeled as permabears or troublemakers -- or worse.)
Inquiring minds must pay the price.Present day events have opened
many minds, so don't feel to lonely.The same views/ideas that I have now
I also express them in the60's. at that time I was the minority of one!
Even good friends would tell me that I was weird/strange with funny thought
its a strange feeling to be in that situation,things got even worst when
sitting on an executive board I proposed that we all take a pay cut and
not lay off labor so as not to downgrade production and quality...yea
good thing there was no guillotine around'

[Michael]

I don't know why organized crime taking over a country in Europe would be a surprise. Organized crime already runs the one in the middle of North America. . .