The Wave of the Future?

In my book and here at the Financial Armageddon blog -- see "Economy Down, Crime Up," "Suffering from Shopping Withdrawal," and "Other Fallout from the Downturn" -- I've noted that I expect to see crime rates increase as economic conditions worsen.

Two factors will bolster this trend: desperation will lead many formerly law-abiding citizens to cross the line and do what is necessary to survive, and cutbacks in police budgets and private sector spending that directly or indirectly enhance security (e.g., having plenty of customer service staff on hand) will diminish the risks associated with breaking the law.

While it would be premature to argue that the following CNN.com report, "Is Recession Behind Spike in Bank Robberies?" is proof positive that one is leading to the other, it is a development worth watching.

A rash of bank robberies in New York has the city's police commissioner worried that criminals have turned banks into "virtual cash machines" and some wondering whether tough economic times are fueling the trend.

On Monday alone, robbers targeted five banks in the Big Apple, some striking in broad daylight and near famous landmarks.

Police called the incidents unrelated, but they're just the latest examples of the growing tally of hold-ups.

Bank robberies in New York have risen 54 percent compared with last year, with criminals committing more than 430 in the past 12 months, according to the New York police department.

"As it stands now, they've turned [banks] into virtual cash machines," New York Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly said.

Bank robberies are also up in many areas across the country, including San Diego, California, and Houston, Texas, federal law enforcement experts told CNN.

It's enough for some to link the trend to the rash of layoffs, the plummeting stock market and the bust in the real estate values, all of which have left many Americans in dire financial straits.

"It makes me think that the recession is making people go to extreme measures," a woman who frequents one of the banks robbed Monday told The New York Times.  Watch where the robbers struck »

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But Kelly said it's not clear whether the bad economic times are fueling the unusual spike.

"People want to say... it's because of the economy. I think it's too early to make that statement," he said.

CNN security analyst Mike Brooks agreed, adding that although there are typically many bank robberies during the holidays, there are no data to suggest that any recent spike was caused by the economy.

Another expert said it's possible that the difficulty of finding a job right now may be a factor, but he doubted that law-abiding citizens are turning to crime to make ends meet.

"It's hard to attribute the bank robberies to people who were let go from Lehman Brothers or other organizations that are in trouble," said Alfred Blumstein, who has researched criminal justice for 20 years and is a professor of operations research at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College.

"I would anticipate that people who rob banks have been involved with crime before because that's not where one is likely to start," Blumstein said.

A person who might turn to robbing banks is someone in their late teens or early 20s who has already broken the law and has decided to move on to a bigger target, he added.

"Bank robbery is a very high-risk activity, because most banks have various surveillance equipment in place, and it requires a degree of aggressiveness that otherwise law-abiding folks are not likely to take on," Blumstein said.

Some officials say the modern, customer-friendly design of banks -- with easy access to tellers and cash -- is too tempting for robbers.

"We don't like the business plan that makes a bank look like a living room," Kelly said "We [advise] just some common sense provisions, such as so-called bandit barriers, so that tellers have some option to act when somebody puts a note in front of them."

In fact, bank robbers have simply handed tellers a note in a vast majority of hold-ups in New York. Kelly put the figure at 80 percent and added that although the rest of the robbers claimed to have a gun, many didn't actually show it.

Mike Smith, president and CEO of the New York Bankers Association, is meeting with the NYPD to see what more can be done to discourage robbers. He said banks have a significant amount of security, some of which may not be visible to the public.

"Are there enhancements? Obviously. Criminals talk to each other, they know what's going on, but typically they are apprehended," Mike Smith said.

Comments

[scott]

Was it just my imagination or did the debt clock somehow lose about $ 120 billion ?

[Independent Accountant]

Welcome aboard. I've expected this.

[rafael chat]

I´m a 34 years-old brazilian man
Since I can remenber, we defaulted on our natl debt 3 times from the late seventies to now. this was followed by about 20 years of economic dearrangement

I´ve seen hyperinflation, I´ve seen the govt seize all the savings people had in their bank account

I´ve seen people starving in my front door. As a teenager, I got used to feed starving childrem with old bread or bananas on a dayly basis

Riots? 2 blocks from home a police man was beheaded with an axe whem trying to control a mob that claimed for land to plant food on. There was a couple of months when crowds robbed supermarkets, stores, farms.

There was some agreement that those who steal food, say a chicken, shouldn´t be punished. Anyway, some times people prefered to be in jail (to eat) and then made small crimes like blowing a shop´s window

During hyperinflation, those who could afford had food, water and gas storages. Those who couldn´t, had to work for a meal, gathering what they could in the streets

Indeed, poor people had no health care, no insurance of any kind, no retirement, and no access to bank, let alone credit or other financial product. Their houses lacked power, potable water, or sanitation of any kind

I think US society is too well organized to live a real bad time

[Joe M.]

It does not matter how well we are organized, if we lose our medium of exchange you can be sure chaos will follow. This is where we are headed as the USD-fiat-ponzi-scheme unravels in 2009.

[roger]

(I think US society is too well organized )
What a grand illusion! The Nazi machine & Mussolini's
where well organized & where greatly admired by top
American industrialist their display of strength & order really
brought out strong emotions in a lot of people. Before intellect
comes emotions,mother nature created us that way,its a survival
mechanism,we all live & die by her rules you are either predator
or prey.To be on top of the food chain feels so much more
comfortable,but to be free & become truely human we must shed this
subjective illusion,in a system where competition is glorified
this will never happen the best we can do is buy books on economic
road maps for survival HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ONE & ALL.

[Vince]

Mike - Here's another trend that we'll see materializing over the next few years: The biggest baby bust this country has witnessed in generations. Nobody with their head halfway out of their butt is going to be willing to have a baby. Eventually, the government safety net will shred, and then all the immigrant and ignorant types will figure it out as well. I think a similiar phenomenon has occurred in Japan these past few years & now their government is practically begging its citizens to bring forth more children. Meanwhile, we can expect massive closures of elementary schools and maternity wards. Toy retailers, home builders, and diaper manufacturers will also be impacted over the coming years. Eventually, this dearth of children will leave a mark on our culture.

[Junior]

Yet more evidence that people are collectively hallucinating this entire ordeal. Irrational solutions suddenly appear completely acceptable now that people's entire worlds have shifted.

Drunk on the money (or now lack thereof), these people are obviously detached. Criminal networks aren't hard to find, and it doesn't take a lifetime of crime to figure out how to do it.