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« Changing Their Spots | Main | The New Three Rs »

March 12, 2009

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michael, i believe the c-span book tv link posted, after the 1st couple minutes was cut to the last 1/2 of you discussion, Q&A, and missed the 1st part. appreciate all of your insight and opinion on the current state of affairs.

Thanks, you are right. I am trying to get in touch with C-SPAN to get it fixed.

It was obvious that the audience was solidly in the denial phase. The majority of Americans still hope that we can somehow wave a magic wand and it will all go away. In late 2008, investment managers for a pension fund that I was associated with 10 years ago were still indicating in public that commercial real estate will bounce back by late 2009. The professional money managers pretend that everything is fine and the staffs at the public and private funds pretend that they are getting good advice. Based on my research, most pensions funds have not even begun to write down privately held real estate. Over the next three years, values will probably drop at least fifty percent -- more if substantial leverage was utilized.

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