According to the experts, things are looking up. Central bankers have expressed "growing confidence...that the worst of the financial crisis [is] over and that a global economic recovery [is] beginning to take shape." A well known strategist asserts that the "recession is ending 'right now.'" President Obama has said "the economy is 'pointed in the right direction.'"
However, consumers aren't so convinced. Homeowners and young job seekers aren't buying it, either. Nor are those who battle it out each day on Main Street's front lines, as the Charlotte Business Journal reveals in "Small-Business Owners’ Outlook Dims":
Small-business owners aren’t convinced the recession is ending and their outlooks darkened in July, according to a monthly survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business.
NFIB’s index of small-business indicators fell 1.3 points last month to 86.5, the second consecutive monthly decline. The biggest reason was a drop in the number of small-business owners who expect the economy to improve in the next six months.
“The recession is wearing Main Street folks down,” says Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “And unfortunately, lawmakers in Washington are doing more to scare small-business owners than to reassure them of an economic recovery.”
Small-business owners are worried about higher taxes and proposed mandates to provide health insurance, Dunkelberg says. Taxes were cited as the No. 1 business problem by 22 percent of the small-business owners surveyed.
A bigger problem, cited by 32 percent, was poor sales.
Hmmm, I wonder which group -- those who are supposedly in the know or those who are struggling to get by -- is living in the economic no-spin zone?
Michael - your website is brilliant and your analysis quite informative. However, I wonder if perhaps you are missing the mechanisms of the stock market. The market peaks ahead of the disaster and bottoms before we all see the signs. Are you late to the party as things go from hell to equilibrium?
Posted by: craig | August 21, 2009 at 11:24 PM
Craig, Craig, Craig
How accurate was that barometer you cite in May 1930?
Posted by: rober | August 22, 2009 at 10:10 AM
Good linx. Thanx.
Posted by: edgar | August 22, 2009 at 02:15 PM
"Taxes were cited as the No. 1 business problem by 22 percent of the small-business owners surveyed.
A bigger problem, cited by 32 percent, was poor sales."
Shouldn't the biggest be "No. 1"?
Posted by: Michael | August 22, 2009 at 08:05 PM
They're just leaving room for number zero!
Posted by: stebe | August 22, 2009 at 10:15 PM