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« Not Working Out as Planned | Main | Still an Ugly Picture in Housing »

August 06, 2009

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The fact that Financial Armageddon has become increasingly popular of late is yet another sign that we have reached a major bottom in the market and the economy as a whole. It seems that investors and the public in general flock to read books and websites that are pessimistic at market bottoms just as they embraced books calling for Dow 30,000 at the market top. A book by Robert Prechter calling for a worldwide depression shot to the top of the best seller list in early 2003, right at the bottom of the last market downturn. While Prechter is a great market technician, the fact that his book became so popular at that time turned out to be a great contrary indicator. I may have to add website views such as these to the indicator list.

Then again, perhaps it has something to do with the quality of the content?
Bear in mind, of course, that if you had gone long the S&P 500 index as a "contrarian play" when the site was launched in late 2006 or my book of the same name was published in March 2007, you would be underwater by about 30%.

Having purchased the book Financial Armageddon early on, I would be the first to admit that there were many astute observations. The website provides interesting information as well. What I pointed out was the usefulness of the popularity of such products and not necessarily the their launch date. More importantly, it is the long term performance of financial advisors that is important, not just a particular market call. Our economy seems to be standing at a crossroad at this time and it will be interesting to see who has made the correct evaluation.

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