The Business Roundtable, an association of chief executive officers of leading corporations, is out with its "Fourth Quarter 2009 ECO Economic Outlook Survey," and expectations are not exactly V-shaped:
The CEOs of America’s leading companies anticipate increased capital expenditures and sales in the next six months, but do not expect employment to significantly improve, according to the results of Business Roundtable’s fourth quarter 2009 CEO Economic Outlook Survey. Business Roundtable CEOs also cited health care as their top cost concern going into 2010.
“The economy is in the throes of a long transition back to health; recovery will be long, extending beyond 2010,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “The outlook of our CEOs reflects that reality: we see noticeable gains in sales and capital spending, but employment growth continues to lag.”
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The survey's key findings from this quarter and last quarter include:
2009 Q4 2009 Q3 Increase No Change Decrease Increase No Change Decrease How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months? 68%
15%
17%
51%
23%
26%
How do you expect your company’s U.S. capital spending to change in the next six months?40%
44% 16% 21%
44% 35%
How do you expect your company’s U.S. employment to change in the next six months?19%
50% 31% 13%
47% 40%
In terms of the overall U.S. economy, member CEOs estimate real GDP will grow by 1.9 percent in 2010.
One aspect of the results that seemed especially incongruous to me: those polled expect sales to increase next year, but without an overall increase in employment, where do they think the related additional spending is going to come from?
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