Worse than It Looks?

Following on from data presented by Calculated Risk in various posts, including "Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead", which I highlighted in "Not a Positive Economic Picture," an article in the January issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, entitled "A Historical Look at the Labor Market During Recessions," confirms that the U.S. unemployment rate has "surpassed the average of all post-World War II recessions—and...continued climbing through 2009."

The authors also note, however, that current labor market conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the downturns of the 1920s and 1930s.

In fairness, they acknowledge that changes in the structure of the economy, the skill level of workers and labor force participation rates, among other things, make comparisons difficult.

But I wonder how much of this relative outperformance is the result of the statistical games Washington seems to be playing (e.g., birth-death adjustments), the (unsustainable) extent to which public-sector employment has grown, and the massive but temporary jolt that has been provided by trillions of dollars worth of fiscal and monetary stimulus?

I guess we won't know for sure until the fat lady sings.

Click here to read the rest.

(Hat tip to Economix.)

Comments

[Matt]

Its really bad out there

[Ron]

If unemployment figures were calculated the same; The Depression vs NOW, then they would chart out being MUCH closer. The chart provided in this article is very inaccurate/deceiving.

[carl]

if I recall correctly during the 30's unemployment was anyone over the age of 16 that was unemployed

having said that, the U-6 BLS number at 17.x% would be well short of reality if you wanted to compare this depression with the last

[karen]

www.shadowstats.com provides REAL economic data and not the bogus stats used in the charts above. Only a fool would believe government stats since Bill Clinton took office.