A Secular Shift?

Some analysts believe that what the economy is going through right now is not just a  recession; rather, it is what might be called a "recalibration," or "recalculation," or "reset," involving major changes in the overall structure of the economy.

When that happens -- as during the Great Depression, when agriculture's share of the economy experienced a secular decline -- some jobs and industries disappear forever, eventually replaced by others.

That said, unless the United States is heading down the banana republic route, I'm not sure the shift detailed in the following USA Today report, "Lobbying Industry Booms in Recession," gives us much insight on what the future holds.

Or does it?

WASHINGTON — The recession has battered the U.S. economy, but the lobbying industry is humming along in the nation's capital, even for companies that have shed thousands of jobs in the past year.

The 20 trade associations and companies that spent the most on lobbying increased their spending by more than 20% in 2009 to $507.7 million, up from $418.2 million a year earlier, according to a USA TODAY analysis of reports compiled by the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics.

The top 20 include oil giant ConocoPhillips, which announced nearly 1,300 layoffs in January 2009, and drugmaker Pfizer, which shed 4,200 jobs since completing its merger with drug company Wyeth last fall.

ConocoPhillips and its subsidiaries more than doubled lobbying spending to $18.1 million last year as Congress worked on climate change legislation, the review of recently filed reports shows. The oil company had $8.5 million in lobbying expenses in 2008.

Pfizer and subsidiaries spent $24.6 million to lobby Congress and the Obama administration last year, up $12.2 million in 2008.

When asked about its stepped-up lobbying activity, Pfizer spokeswoman Kristen Neese said in an e-mail that the company is "committed to making our voice heard and to be constructively engaged in our nation's health care debate."

Officials with ConocoPhillips did not return telephone calls.

"Companies have made the decision that they are going to have to spend money today in order to protect their bottom line tomorrow, even if they are in the midst of layoffs, even if their profits are dwindling," said Dave Levinthal of the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks money in politics. "When Congress is debating sweeping legislation ... they are going to come out in force, regardless of economic conditions on the ground."

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce led spending, pumping $144.5 million into lobbying last year, according to the center's tally. That's a nearly 60% increase over 2008 and came as the business federation battled Congress and the White House over legislation dealing with health care and financial regulation.

Spending jumped because the chamber also launched an advertising campaign last year, including TV ads slamming a congressional proposal to create a new consumer-protection agency to oversee lending, said R. Bruce Josten, the chamber's executive vice president for government affairs. The chamber needed to respond to "critically important, top-tier issues to the business community" coming out of Congress, he said.

More than half of the top 20 companies increased lobbying activity in 2009. Others, including Verizon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, curtailed spending. Struggling automaker General Motors tumbled out of the top 20 altogether.

GM, which has cut 21,000 U.S. jobs and has received more than $50 billion in government aid — spent $8.7 million on lobbying last year, down from $13.4 million in 2008. "Our lobbying reflects that we are a smaller, more concentrated company," spokesman Greg Martin said Thursday.

Even so, the company remains active on the lobbying front, spending $1.5 million during the last three months of 2009.

"We believe we need to have a voice in the overall policy discussion," Martin said, "just as our competitors do."

Comments

[rMac23]

Wow. Just....wow.

Scary to think that this *is* our future:
* Banana Republic? probably not in the next 5 - 10 yrs.; after that?
* This may be a "reset" to the ivory-towered analysts, but not for the proles down here.
* no manufacturing = no future. We either focus on that, or we cease to exist within 10 yrs.

Scarier to know we're going to (try to) live through this.....

[Dave Narby]

I think lobbying has increased because corporations see the writing on the wall... If they don't get in there, there's going to be a lot legislation passed that won't favor them.

It won't work though, many a bum is getting tossed out.

[Mike]

As a small business owner I've seen a continual sales decline since Nov 2007, the month before the NBER says the 'recession' started. I have cut costs as hard and fast as possible and sales continue to decline. I fear this IS a "secular shift" in which past patterns don't hold and gov't interference within well-worn Keynesian parameters as well as the New Hopey-Changey social spending makes a bad situation worse. Much, much worse. I've had all the change I can stomach.

[CTM]

Er...

Why is there no hue and cry for protective import tariffs?

Seems obvious to me... Tax the fuck out of imported goods to improve local manufacture.