Set to Move in the Wrong Direction

I've been surprised by the extent to which crime has remained subdued. In Financial Armageddon, I argued that deteriorating economic circumstances and aggressive cutbacks by state and local governments would not only encourage criminals to engage in more bad behavior, but would also lead to an increase in illegal activity among formerly law-abiding but now desperate citizens. So far, at least, that has not been the case. A report in Time magazine, "What's Behind America's Falling Crime Rate," offers a number of reasons why:

Health care, climate change, terrorism--is it even possible to solve big problems? The mood in Washington is not very hopeful these days. But take a look at what has happened to one of the biggest, toughest problems facing the country 20 years ago: violent crime. For years, Americans ranked crime at or near the top of their list of urgent issues. Every politician, from alderman to President, was expected to have a crime-fighting agenda, yet many experts despaired of solutions. By 1991, the murder rate in the U.S. reached a near record 9.8 per 100,000 people. Meanwhile, criminologists began to theorize that a looming generation of so-called superpredators would soon make things even worse.

Then, a breakthrough. Crime rates started falling. Apart from a few bumps and plateaus, they continued to drop through boom times and recessions, through peace and war, under Democrats and Republicans. Last year's murder rate may be the lowest since the mid-1960s, according to preliminary statistics released by the Department of Justice. The human dimension of this turnaround is extraordinary: had the rate remained unchanged, an additional 170,000 Americans would have been murdered in the years since 1992. That's more U.S. lives than were lost in combat in World War I, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq--combined. In a single year, 2008, lower crime rates meant 40,000 fewer rapes, 380,000 fewer robberies, half a million fewer aggravated assaults and 1.6 million fewer burglaries than we would have seen if rates had remained at peak levels.

There's a catch, though. No one can convincingly explain exactly how the crime problem was solved. Police chiefs around the country credit improved police work. Demographers cite changing demographics of an aging population. Some theorists point to the evolution of the drug trade at both the wholesale and retail levels, while for veterans of the Clinton Administration, the preferred explanation is their initiative to hire more cops. Renegade economist Steven Levitt has speculated that legalized abortion caused the drop in crime. (Fewer unwanted babies in the 1970s and '80s grew up to be thugs in the 1990s and beyond.)

The truth probably lies in a mix of these factors, plus one more: the steep rise in the number of Americans in prison. As local, state and federal governments face an era of diminished resources, they will need a better understanding of how and why crime rates tumbled. A sour economy need not mean a return to lawless streets, but continued success in fighting crime will require more brains, especially in those neighborhoods where violence is still rampant and public safety is a tattered dream.

The Lockup Factor

In his book why crime rates fell, Tufts University sociologist John Conklin concluded that up to half of the improvement was due to a single factor: more people in prison. The U.S. prison population grew by more than half a million during the 1990s and continued to grow, although more slowly, in the next decade. Go back half a century: as sentencing became more lenient in the 1960s and '70s, the crime rate started to rise. When lawmakers responded to the crime wave by building prisons and mandating tough sentences, the number of prisoners increased and the number of crimes fell.

Common sense, you might think. But this is not a popular conclusion among criminologists, according to Conklin. "There is a tendency, perhaps for ideological reasons, not to want to see the connection," he says. Incarceration is to crime what amputation is to gangrene--it can work, but a humane physician would rather find a way to prevent wounds and cure infections before the saw is necessary. Prison is expensive, demoralizing and deadening. "Increased sentencing in some communities has removed entire generations of young men" from some minority communities, says San Francisco police chief George Gascón. "Has that been a factor in lowering crime? I think it probably has. I think it also probably has had a detrimental effect on those communities."

Worth bearing in mind, of course, is that the kinds of financial pressures that individuals and municipalities are continually faced with will eventually undermine some of the factors that have helped keep a lid on illegal activity. Increasingly, governments around the country are slashing police and prison-related budgets, while a growing number of unemployed Americans are exhausting resources and safety-net benefits as jobs remain scarce. Under the circumstances, it won't be long before the crime rate starts moving in the wrong direction.

Comments

[W.C. Varones]

Zackly right.

California is doing a massive prison release for budgetary reasons. Let's see how that works out.

Perpetually extended unemployment benefits help too. And then there's the free rent from all the delayed foreclosures. You let a man stay in a defaulted house for free for a year or two, that's a lot of car stereos he doesn't have to boost to pay the rent.

Extended unemployment and postponed foreclosures can't last forever. Got ammo?

[John S.]

I believe one of the reasons is the new camera technology;
The technology improved, became cheap and available,
there are so many cameras all around the public places.
One can easily be notices from the videos, if a guy is going to commit a crime, he must think twice, because there is a witness with a video footage behind.

[angryfutureexpat]

There's another factor at play here. Locking people up for extended periods for trivial crimes is probably the biggest, but what I like to call the death of group boredom is probably playing a role too. Cheap and nearly universal access to cell phones, the internet, and high-end gaming systems leaves precious little time for groups of young men to get together in the real world, drink, do drugs, and cause trouble.

Or maybe the whole thing will fall apart in a year - who knows.

[kwark]

Correlation is not causation. Criminologist probably don't buy his explanation because his more-prisoners-for-longer explanation may gloss-over a much more complex, and less easily explained, set of circumstances.

[Steve]

Absolutely, let prisoners in for non-violent crimes (like pot and drug posession) out. Isn't it something like half of all prisoners are in for pot? What a waste of taxpayers' money. Reduce the prison population in these expensive crowbar hotels.
Legalize marijuana and tax it. Not only are you saving prison budget by letting prisoners out, you've got a new source of state revenue. That's a big win.
Only a matter of time before pot is legalized just for the tax benefits.

[Wade]

there has also been a surge in gun ownership over the last couple of years...so why should anyone be surprised that crime is down when law-abiding citizens are arming and protecting themselves

[Bob Crane]

The vast majority of crimes are committed by career criminals.
If you are convicted of 3 or 4 crimes, how many have you committed that went unpunished.?Locking up career criminals is probably the biggest factor.
The other is "I'm laid off, and staying at home." A few years ago, my area was deserted during the day (both parents working.)In my neighborhood alone, several people I know have been out of work for a year,or more. These people are visable during the day, mowing lawns, painting the house, etc. so criminals "trolling" the neighborhood are not finding easy targets.

[Shinobi No Mono]

1. The legalization of abortion eliminated "at risk" youth before they were born. Read "Freakonomics" for the analysis on this.

2. I've heard it said that when people lived in small communities where everyone knew everyone, people behaved better. The anonymity of the big city led to people not caring about their reputations and engaging in all kinds of awful behavior. Is it possible that the internet and cameras everywhere have removed that anonymity? Anything bad I do can be googled now, and everyone I know will know about it.

[Waiting For The Other Shoe to Drop]

LET'S NOT FORGET ABOUT Flouride and mass hypnosis (mind control).

Let's face it. Americans are drugged and hypnotized. 30 hrs of TV per week, so many pharmaceuticals that it's showing up in the ocean, the heroin trade is up just to name a few.

[Coolidge is the man]

Good point about google

[Big Ern]

The obvious cause is the rise is xenoestrogens that are making men less masculine and more docile.

[ruralcounsel]

I'm curious why one would think removing "an entire generation" of criminals would have a "detrimental effect" on minority communities. Wouldn't that be a benefit, not a detriment?

What is regrettable is that an "entire generation of young men" are all criminals. It takes a good bit of illegal behavior to get sent to prison these days. Ask any parole officer. There are large numbers of criminals out and about on parole, on suspended sentences, on early release, work-release, and quite a few just out on conditions of release pending further judicial activity. If they are in prison, it isn't for a minor infraction. We have communities where virtually all the young males are feral. And dangerous.

A marijuana bust will only land you in prison if you're already out on conditions of release or parole or suspended sentence, or if you're dealing in large quantities. So yes, we have a lot of people in prison on drug charges, but if it's for marijuana, it isn't usually the primary reason. It was the string that the judge attached to reel them back in when they started to cause trouble again.

[Kevin]

I suspect that a lot of would be criminals decide not to commit a crime because there is a growing belief that it is more likely they will be caught. This is because of modern day CSI type of technologies, DNA, cell phone tracking and cameras all over the place.

Paradoxically, however white collar crime runs rampant. And much of it has actually been legalized. Al Capone would be proud. Usury (legalized loan sharking) for example has been legalized for the benefit of banks or credit card companies.

Your credit card company can now charge as much as 79% interest and 29% is not uncommon; your bank can charge you $35 for a NSF check that costs them 60 cents to process. Thus, your credit card company or bank can LEGALLY rob you. But someone who decides to rob the bank however, will likely get go to jail.

So, blue collar crime is down, but white collar crime is up - way up, because much of it has been legalized gradually over a period of time.