Alleged Experts vs. Those With Skin in the Game

Here's what the alleged experts are saying:

"Forecasters Lower Double-Dip Odds" (Real Time Economics)

Forecasters downgraded the odds the economy could slip back into recession, according to a closely watched survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Friday, with the report saying economists “have revised downward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters.”

"The Risk of a Double-Dip Recession Is Nil" (Kansas City Star)

A rising yield curve, or the difference between short and long-term bond rates, is a bullish sign for the future. Based on that, the New York Fed says the risk of a double-dip recession...is virtually nil.

The Fed's model ... shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 35-40%, and has been declining since then in almost every month. For April 2010, the recession probability is only 0.37% (about 1/3 of 1%) and by a year from now in April 2011 the recession probability is only .041%, the lowest reading since September 1993.

According to the NY Fed Treasury Spread model, the recession ended sometime in middle of 2009, and the chances of a double-dip recession through early 2011 are essentially zero.

And here's what the guys (and gals) who have skin in the game are anticipating:

"Credit Swap Investors Increase Bets on ‘Double Dip’ Recession" (Bloomberg)

Traders in the credit-default swaps market are increasing bets the global recovery will stall and push Europe into a “double dip” recession, according to BNP Paribas SA.

As a hedge against a renewed slump, investors are buying protection on the Markit iTraxx Europe HiVol Index of swaps on lower-ranked investment-grade companies and selling the higher grade Markit iTraxx Europe Index, said BNP’s Pierre-Yves Bretonniere. They expect to profit as the riskier HiVol rises relative to the iTraxx Europe gauge as the economy slows.

“The market is starting to question the sustainability of the recovery and the possibility of a double dip,” Bretonierre said. “It makes sense to take positions that would benefit from the increase of probability of a double-dip scenario.”

Of course, some might (correctly) point out that the U.S. is not mentioned in the last excerpt. But if anybody really believes that our economy is not going to be dragged down if -- when -- Europe and the rest of the world hit the skids, I've got a bridge to sell them.

Comments

[Kevin Lagorio]

Hey we could sell the bridge to Arizona to help the illegals come in and give them a bus ticket to Washington, since they want to help them so much, or even to Detroit where their are thousands of empty houses they can live in. I agree with you the double dip is already starting, and the idiots Stooge Larry Summers, Turbo Timmy,and Helicopter Ben are right on top of things! Remember economists are the alchemists of the 21st Century and the weather people today are much more accurate! When they dig is up they will be laughing so hard at what the economists predicteed and were used for!

A few more trillion here and there and everything will be OK! Once everybody figures out there is not enough money and the bonds are all crap then the real shit will hit the fan as interest rates start to sky rocket. We are just a few more hair cuts away from this happening.

My other question did the Senate pass something that is full of hot air or what! Now we will never get finanical reform because everything will fall apart before we get another chance.

Take Care

[nevket240]

Ha Ha Ha!!! He He He!!!
Pardon my laughing on-line but I've just looked at the last minute ramp in the Dow. OMG. How obvious is criminal intent to defraud????
Do intelligent people really buy this shyte?? (yep)
America, the land of Hype & Glory........
regards

[Luke]

does it really make any difference at this end stage of the game? webbots Nov 2010 seem to state it "just doesn't matter" in light of what is coming down the pike. enjoy the rest of life no matter how currently shitty

[no stocks 4me]

HY just follow Uncle (the CNBC Clown) Kramer, He knows ALL. or at least he knows how to make funny noise, smirks.

[GYSC]

But did you short the bridges you were gonna sell first?!

The exposure of the system is gaining momentum.

[MichaelN]

So, the same guys that didn't see the recession/depression coming in 2007 - and said that it was over in 2008 - now forecast that it's impossible for it to reappear? Yep, makes sense to me!

Wait, are these the same people who didn't the European mess coming, too?

[Marc Authier]

Experts ? Highly paid whores to say what the client wants them to say. Usually a damn bankster or a politician crook. So much for "experts".

[Teddy]

Listen to this..

Jim Rickards Discusses Financial Warfare

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/5/22_Jim_Rickards.html

[ykw]

about that bridge ...

[ykw]

The Symbiotic Relativity Circuit

You are observing, and hopefully participating in, a new form of government being born, first informally, and then formally, in the natural quantum evolution of democracy. The “new world order” is the shell (cocoon, placenta, pick your analogy). As variable amplitude, variable frequency individuals collect virtually to form a pole, beyond the knowledge of the single amplitude, single frequency click gearing system, the latter is subject to accelerating force of implosion, as the poles separate.

The legacy operators see 3 phase system separation, but they are all locked into the 2 phase system of their own design, and bred behavior cannot be changed in real time, short of re-booting with a new kernel, which means a life-threatening event. They unsuccessfully tried to stage such an event in order to control the outcome, “never let as crisis go to waste.” The gravity of the AMA has turned the perception of birth into a crisis, but it is not a crisis by nature. From the perspective of the universe, it is the normal distribution.

Simultaneously to this round of human development, there are all kinds of half-cycles within the relativity circuit approaching synchronous 0 voltage, not the least of which is solar alignment and human demographic deceleration. Humans provide balance on the planetary fulcrum, new governments are generally birthed in the misdirection of war, and the universe is about to introduce the legacy operators to leverage.

They put all their eggs, and all the eggs of their followers, on the same too-big-to-stop train, like they always do. That train is now bearing downhill on a rail with no brakes, and they cannot get off, which is why they keep putting alcohol in the punchbowl, and increasing pay for the participants. Operators do not repeat their history because they fail to remember it; they misrepresent History in attempt to control the future, with the same result every time.

At this point, the blue-chip multi-nationals are worth more dead than alive, and their operators would have to borrow money just to kill them, which recent events attest, and why the administrators cannot open their mouths without lying and why the Fed’s only course is to pump virtual money into the black hole. They plan, by nature, on the assumption that they are the center of the universe, to create follower induction. Gravity is gravity. It shorts time because it cannot have confidence in the unknowable. What it cannot see is a threat.

Accordingly, they are trying to buy insurance to hedge against evolution, which cannot be had at any price, shorting themselves out of the future, by increasingly deploying resources to the increasingly irrational supply-side economy, placing all the wrong people in all the wrong places with all the wrong materials, to solve problems of their own creation.

Under evolution, all you can do is prepare to be lucky, which itself is a perception, by developing adaptive skill. Confidence in the unknowable makes the circuit, and ruling out the known is a function of experience operating in the dark, just beyond the event horizon. Coasting down the same hill every day, and getting back to the top at night on someone else’s back, in a pump and dump operation, doesn’t qualify.

Tinkering with adaptive skill in preparation to be lucky beats planning every single time, because the followers take their planners seriously, resulting in a self-fulfilling prophesy of individual failure, an efficient, but ineffective codependent relationship that must be fed by larger and larger slave sub-economies as the core devolves, relative to evolution, resulting in implosion when it reaches its limit.

There are too many collisions to keep track of in real time, and not even the Rockefellers can afford a computer the size of the universe. Contrary to popular belief, the probability of the sun coming up tomorrow is not a sure bet. Much less so is a ponzi economy at maturity.

It’s not about good guys or bad guys. It’s about getting across the gap. Whether the process is a threat or an opportunity depends upon your perspective. There is no record of this particular problem ever being solved correctly, but, as we are increasingly observing, History is exponentially subjective over time.

Many of the legacy operators would just as soon be drunk and watching fireworks when they reach the cliff. The physical train itself, along with anyone clutching it, is going to be recycled on the rocks at the base of the cliff.

You will see a ramp abutting the cliff. The train is going to hit a brick wall at the end of that ramp, momentarily stopping relative time, killing the existing false assumption cats, and creating new ones. Facts are simply material, and everyone has talent, of one variety or another, to fit components into the required bridge.

When re-coherence on the event horizon reaches your location, you will see the virtual rotor, if you are looking for it. You will have time for one decision and one decision only, to dump the armature. When you look again, the armature will be there. The armature is made of your false assumption coils, pressed onto the false assumption layers of the shared system cores.

If you are on that train, you will see something you have never seen before. If you drop your armature, your security against insecurity, you will be on the train on the other side of the gap, as if the ramp never existed and the bridge was there all along, and your psychology will dismiss the virtual rotor, replacing it with what appears to be the very same armature.

If you are not on that train, you will have an opportunity to gain an equity position in the next development phase, by fitting in your component. The bridge utility becomes important real estate.

In time, every economy dismisses, rules out, the virtual rotor. No virtual rotor, no economy, which means that each component must bank talent to create the virtual stator when it is needed, and why lean production, subsidized by the service economy, subsidized by government deficits, subsidized by artificial demographic acceleration, doesn’t work. It runs out of economic slaves to feed the fire.

It’s not a butterfly in China; it’s a particle on the other side of the universe.

[Ian Sassoon]

What recession? This is strongest bull market in history! (except for the last few weeks)