Some experts claim that a slowing rate of decline in certain indicators is a clear sign that the economy is on the mend. Others say that aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus can't help but turn things around. Many argue that the patterns of the past mean the time is more than ripe for a major rebound. Maybe I'm simplistically old school, but I favor the perspective of the NFIB economist quoted in the following Bloomberg article, "Consumer Spending Needs to Rebound Before Hiring: Tom Keene," who apparently believes that the key to recovery is people spending money (italics mine):
Small businesses won’t begin hiring and spending again until consumers regain confidence in the economy, according to William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Business.
The NFIB’s optimism index rose to 90.6 from 86.8 in March, the Washington-based group said today. The index remains below levels associated with past economic recoveries, indicating the rebound in growth will take time to develop. The report showed the employment outlook was negative in April for the 17th time in the past 18 months.
Tax cuts alone won’t help small businesses thrive, because small businesses will keep any cash saved on reserve if they don’t foresee sustainably improved conditions ahead for financing and for consumer demand, Dunkelberg said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today with Tom Keene. Instead, the Obama administration should ease taxes on consumers, he said.
“Get consumer spending back, make them feel better,” Dunkelberg said. “If I don’t think I’m going to get customers, I’m not going to take that money and start a firm.”
Proposals calling for a value-added tax, a consumption levy applied to each stage of production, “scare” small business owners because they come with compliance costs and consumers blame the businesses for price increases, Dunkelberg said. A value-added tax on top of current taxes would be “a disaster,” according to Dunkelberg.
was watching a video of a well known trader picking up a copy of the newspaper...telling his subscribers that the papers were talking bout supply not being able to meet demand. What a joke...why whould you ever trust what the papers are writing.>>>???
There is such thing as propaganda. You are better off being able to work out the figures that come out day to day, before believing what is in the papers. But then again, some of the data that comes out is total BS. SHHHEESSH it is getting hard to trust these world elites more and more.
Posted by: Financial Truth | May 11, 2010 at 11:52 PM
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Posted by: Jena | May 12, 2010 at 10:24 AM
B-b-but Say's Law says...
Posted by: hmpf | May 12, 2010 at 11:34 AM
It is strange what is going on in my part of the world. I have a law degree and I am Series 7, 63, and 66 licensed. I now sell cars; I sell expensive cars to the people I used to provide legal and investment advice. Business is good. So good, in fact, I may make more than I did in my best year in the other two occupations. Credit is cheap and still easy to get. The dealership I work for has set sales records the first 4 months of 2010.
Is this the dying gasp of a ponzi economy or a sign that things are getting better?
Posted by: Squared_Hedge | May 13, 2010 at 08:58 PM