Not Exactly a Pretty Picture

The Associated Press has posted an interactive version of its Economic Stress Index, which reveals in graphic detail how economic conditions have evolved since late-2007.

Below is a snapshot showing the changes in the combined impact of unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcy in the 50 U.S. states in November 2007, before the recession began, and in June of this year.

Those darker, deeper colors in the most recent period don't exactly spell "recovery," do they?

Comments

[Marion Shaw]

Without corresponding numbers to interpret the
color coded stress test, it is not really a helpful
tool to use strategies like this. As the colors
measure the stress indicators for individuals, then
can it be assumed that the states with the darkest
colors are on the verge of falling into a "red" hole
or a "black" one? The intended impression left with
these maps, may be entirely misleading, without the
hard numbers. ie: foreclosures in ratio to population
and in a ratio to solvent loans, thus pointing to the
effects on the tax base of the locality; etc.etc.
Put some numerical teeth into the color codes and then they maybe a more accurate and useful indicator of "trends."

[Youngworker]

No recovery until my brother, friends, and I have a relevant job.

[xqqme]

No, no, no! As Joe Biden said, the is the 'Recovery Summer'! Tim Geithner even said,"Welcome to the Recovery!". See! We're on the right path! LOL

The Dems know they will lose in Nov. (Results of being the 'Evil Party') They just don't know how bad. However, the R's will be set up to catch the falling safe! (They're not the 'stupid party' for nothing!)
We are in a ten year volitile political economy. There's no room for commerce.
Soon, the D's and the R's will be arguing who can best manage our corporatist/welfare state.

[sharonsj]

If the Dems lose out to the Repubs, things will just get worse faster. The Repubs don't give a crap about you unless you are very rich. They are happy to see Wall Street bailed out and saved, but give the unemployed a hand? help feed the poor? No way. They ran up a huge deficit while they were in charge without a peep. But let the Dems have a deficit and the sky is falling.

Not that I like the Dems either. They are spineless wimps who have turned into Republican Lite. Obama was supposed to reverse Bush's policies, but we still have two wars, the patriot act, and a bunch of other unconstitutional acts as well as corporate lackeys running government agencies (like the degenerate thieves who turned a blind eye to BP).

There is no recovery and we are all f*cked.

[Enoughwealth]

Comparing 'before recession' and 'start of recovery' you'd expect the chart to look exactly like this. After all, 'recovery' starts as soon as the bottom has been reached (ie. when the graphic would look it's worst).

Expecting things to look as rosy during the 'recovery' phase as they before the recession began is just plain stupid.

[DoctoredWealth]

Enoughwealth- as can be seen on your blog you lost $500K playing the equity ponies and you're betting your future on the lies of Helicopter Ben and Turbo-tax Timmy. Good luck, you're going to need it. HFT gangsters and the continuing QE-financed economic implosion will eat what's left of your wealth. BTW your subconscious mind may have quoted 'recovery' for an important reason. Listen to your subconscious mind! i.e. "I seem to be running short of cash each month." No kidding! Leveraged much? Heh.

[Enoughwealth]

I'll readily admit that since I'm invested in the stock market (and Australian property market), and highly geared to boot, I've got a bias towards positive thinking ie. I hope things actually do get better, otherwise I'll be 'rooned.

However, my main point was that this graphic is what you'd expect to see if the US economy had bottomed-out and had commenced a recovery. It would look exactly the same NOW if the economy did not recover and continued to slide into a double-dip recession or a depression. Of itself, the chart doesn't provide enough information.

If you had a series of such graphs (say, monthly) you could see if the trend towards darker, deeper colors had ended and started to reverse. With only a 'before' and 'now' snapshot you can't tell.

If there WAS a clear indication that things were going to get worse (esp. globally and hence Australia, rather than just US-centric) I'd before the first to sell-up, deleverage and sit on cash until I can buy deflated assets at a discount...

[roger]

Every economy in the world needs to increase exports,
every industrial nation is switching to severe austerity
programs,every industrial country is automating production
and all are cutting the labor force, world credit is
severely regressing,over production and market saturation
have reach their limits,and their is much,,,much more.
these are the trends that foretell the future not graphs.

[Sam, forex trading course coach]

Nothing can happen without working citizens. The consumers fuel the economy, if they don't have jobs, we don't have an economy..

[dizzyfingers]

It's an Associate Press chart for cripes sake; worst of the "news" "services" - yet another example of AP's uselessness. Stupid to use it here.

[dizzyfingers]

The US econonomy used to be fueled by production, i.e. actual design, development, and manufacturing of amazing goods sold here and abroad. Gradually the creative and ambitious folks who 'invented' that golden era were replaced by sheep (green) who decided that manufacturing was worthless and destructive, and other sheep (stupid) who decided that buying cheap stuff and discarding it when it broke or wore out was better than excellent US jobs that supported families and made consumer goods that lasted.

Now, here we are. And we haven't reached bottom yet.

[dizzyfingers]

Quote: Every economy in the world needs to increase exports,
every industrial nation is switching to severe austerity
programs,every industrial country is automating production
and all are cutting the labor force, world credit is
severely regressing,over production and market saturation
have reach their limits,and their is much,,,much more.
these are the trends that foretell the future not graphs. Unquote

Yep. Terrifying isn't it?

[dizzyfingers]

quote: Comparing 'before recession' and 'start of recovery' you'd expect the chart to look exactly like this. After all, 'recovery' starts as soon as the bottom has been reached (ie. when the graphic would look it's worst).

Expecting things to look as rosy during the 'recovery' phase as they before the recession began is just plain stupid.
unquote

Yeah, sure. Keep on telling yourself that.

[dizzyfingers]

Quote: If the Dems lose out to the Repubs, things will just get worse faster. The Repubs don't give a crap about you unless you are very rich. They are happy to see Wall Street bailed out and saved, but give the unemployed a hand? help feed the poor? No way. They ran up a huge deficit while they were in charge without a peep. But let the Dems have a deficit and the sky is falling.
Not that I like the Dems either. They are spineless wimps who have turned into Republican Lite. Obama was supposed to reverse Bush's policies, but we still have two wars, the patriot act, and a bunch of other unconstitutional acts as well as corporate lackeys running government agencies (like the degenerate thieves who turned a blind eye to BP).
There is no recovery and we are all f*cked.
Unquote

You're right about no recovery, and yes, I think most of us out here in citizenland are effed.

Bot wake up - no party or politician "gives a crap" about anyone except themselves.

They run for office to get their snouts into taxpayer pockets -- and then they manipulate throughout their lifetime terms to stay on the public payroll so that taxpayers (who by definition are workers NO MATTER HOW HIGH OR LOW their salary levels so the more they earn the bigger percentage of taxes they pay) foot the costs of their "jobs" (which consist of telling the rest of the country what we can and cannot do, what they are going to charge us for their "services" and how much of the money we earn they are going to...let's be honest...steal from us. Any other interpretation of these facts is erroneous.

To want any political party to care about you is silly. To any party or politician you are only a mindless faceless vote to them, and they want you to remain blind and stupid so that you keep them in office (where they expropriate a disproportionately large share of GDP), for which they will dole out pittances to people so lacking in pride that they'll lick the hand that's keeping the boot on their necks while the political power structure that keeps them down insures limited jobs through restrictive regulations on businesses and conspiring with unions that if you want to join it'll be like joining the mafia...for all we know it IS the mafia...

Try to stop scapegoating and whining, and grow some perspective and common sense.