Parallel Worlds

The world according to Washington:

"Obama Confident No 'Double-Dip' Recession Coming" (Associated Press)

CHICAGO – President Barack Obama says he is confident the nation will not suffer the "double dip" of back-to-back recessions.

The rebound of the U.S. economy appears to be slowing, prompting fears that the nation will slide into recession again after a brief period of growth.

Obama told a CNBC interviewer he was confident that won't happen.

The world according to everybody else:

"CEOs Less Confident in Recovery" (Real Time Economics)

Consumers aren’t the only ones growing less confident about the economy. A survey of U.S. chief executives conducted by the Young Presidents’ Organization found declining confidence over the outlook for sales and employment levels as well as the overall business climate compared to the group’s previous survey, released in April.

The overall index slipped to 57.5 in July, from 61 in April. Any reading over 50 indicates optimism. The survey showed companies remain extremely reluctant to hire workers: nearly 62% said they didn’t expect their headcounts to have changed a year from now, while nearly 8.5% expected to cut more than 10% of their workers in that time.

The percentage who expected to increase their staff by 10% or more, meanwhile, declined to 30% from 36% three months ago.

“There’s just a gigantic expectation that they’re not hiring anybody,” says Dave Maney, chairman of investment bank Headwaters MB in Denver and a member of the YPO.

"NFIB Small Business Economic Trends: August 2010" (National Federation of Independent Business)

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.9 points in July following a sharp decline in June. The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history. The performance of the economy is mediocre at best, given the extent of the decline over the past two years. Pent up demand should be immense but it is not triggering a rapid pickup in economic activity. Ninety (90) percent of the decline this month resulted from deterioration in the outlook for business conditions in the next six months. Owners have no confidence that economic policies will “fix” the economy.

...

Bottom line, owners remain pessimistic and nothing is happening in Washington to provide encouragement. Confidence is lost. At least the “real variables” (hiring, capital spending and inventory investment) did not deteriorate substantially in July. The damage to the Optimism Index was done by expectations for business conditions for the second half – owners predict that the economy will not improve appreciably, at least on Main Street. Big banks and big manufacturers may be doing well, but the small firms are not. If this doesn’t change soon, the success of the large firms will be imperiled as well.

"August OECD Leading Indicators Tip into Negative" (Data Diary)

Latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators are out (here) – with the June data slipping into the red indicating according to the OECD “a possible peak in expansion”.

‘Possible peak’?  Looks pretty much like it is a near certainty.  With Europe yet to feel the effects of the communal belt tightening and the US struggling to come to terms with its deteriorating government balance sheet, the economic momentum is favouring the downside.

Comments

[francismarion]

Please have some sympathy for the community organizer in chief. He's gotten by with a portfolio of bluff all these years and it's taken him beyond any rational expectation in a sane world.

How would you feel to have slowly revealed to the entire world in all its nakedness your superficial incompetent blockheadedness after such an unparalleled meteoric rise?

I wonder if he's sold the film rights to Hollywood yet? I'm betting the concrete for his handprints is being mixed right now. Somehow I don't think there's a screen large enough to encompass his superextramagnifisingularity though.

[NS4me]

For Crista sake! Of course theres no inflation per Ben, its how they keep rates at 0 and allow banks to get away with 1% on savings, of course theres no inflation per the CPI, its how they justify their voodoo numbers to keep from paying any COLA to the lowest "entitlement" beggars.

Of course if your "paying" for anything the resembles a utility bill, medical bill, dental bill, insurance bill, food, gas, or anything else a "normal" person dealers with daily your well aware that there IS inflation. I would love to see my bills go to 0 due to this "deflation" hell I wouldn't need much money either than.

I see no way any of us lower/middle middle class type can continue to stay there, with no increases in COLA, no rate of return on savings and things continue to creep up we need.

I lived a pretty Astaire life, saved, lived well below my means so I wouldn't have to take any welfare or food stamps or what ever, I never got a dime in unemployment comp in my life, cause I worked as a lost bag boy at 15 and 16, went into the Army at 17 and stayed 27+ years, now as a "enlisted" retiree, NOT a Schwartzkopf, Powell, Clark, McCafferty or North,(never met these guys when active and don't know any of them now) I can't qualify for any aid anyway. We no longer have the benefits we were promised either, DOD quit dental care on post for us a few years ago the prices at the PX are just nuts, and older retirees are about to get priced out of the commissary system too since they increase the prices per what the active duty are being paid, well hell I retired a E-8 with 27+ an E-6 with 8 years makes what I made in base pay now. and without the COLA for another year we'll be even that much further behind, not to mention they are trying to triple the cost for medical.

So YO Kramer and Kudlow, why is it hard to understand why we lower class aren't spend squat if we can help it.

[Youngworker]

Good thing he said that 5 days before the jobs report and low productivity report as of today. Everything is not fine.

[nowhereman]

The sad thing is that this retoric is broadcast universally. The same thing is broadcast in the UK and the Euro zone. Nobody is buying it. If you want to see the future just see what happened in Toronto during the G8/G20 summit. They are coming after you, and you know it.
Check this out if you're not sure...
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/08/10/gibbs?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+creditwritedownsnews+%28Credit+Writedowns%27+News+Feed%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo
Scary shit I'd say.

[Joe]

The realists know everything is collapsing.

[Econ Teacher]

Barry Soetoro didn't lie. There's no double-dip recession because we're in a depression.

Also, inflation looks low, especially in food, because prices hae remained relatively stable, but portions have decreased. That hides the inflation because the government bean counters only count inflation on the price, not the price per serving. With other things, quality has decreased for the same amount of $$$. That's serious inflation being hidden.

[roger]

Parallel Worlds.
A sample of US economic future is now being played
out in the UK, and its just the beginning.

[Blurtman]

@francismarion: No one can be worse than George W. Bush, I think. Why is not Hank Paulson in jail for felony fraud? Christopher Cox did a disastrous job at the SEC. Ditto Geithner at the NY Fed. Condi Rice, along with W, are war criminals. Zero job growth during W, thanks Elaine Chao. And Bush's and Clinton's dreck populate the Obama administration.

We have gone from very bad Coke to terrible Pepsi, but that is all you get in the USA, lousy colas, all bowing to the ruling oligarchies. And the little people duped to play the divide and conquer game, arguing over which is better, Coke or Pepsi.

[francismarion]

Blurtman: I agree with everything you said. But why beat up on the old dummy when you have the new one with all of its stuffing still inside?

This is America, after all and the used is always cast aside when you've got a new one just out-of-the-box.

[kevinearick]

Circulation Recap / Tuning the Vortex

Behavior comes around full circle; an empire is no exception, like tumblers falling into place when the correct combination is entered, and the improbable becomes the probable. Time on the circle is relative, relativity is the only thing holding the spring to the wall, knowledge is the mass, and event expectation is the damper on the wheels. Reality is always at the precipice, balanced by adaptation, by the many in the beginning, and by the few at the end. The problem is the solution.

The gap grows between those who prepare accordingly and those who clutch the black hole, under the mistaken assumption that the empire is a life preserver. Choose/design the: frame of reference / algorithm / filter / religion.

Here’s one:

And the second angel poured out his vial upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea.

Look at the birds of the air: they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they?

And commanded them that they should take nothing for their journey, save a staff only; no scrip, no bread, no money in their purse. But be shod with sandals; and not put on two coats. And he said unto them, In what place soever ye enter into an house, there abide till ye depart from that place. And whosoever shall not receive you, nor hear you, when ye depart thence, shake off the dust under your feet for a testimony against them.

Code is to a circuit as religion is to science.