Plenty of Other Evidence

Many mainstream experts were confused by Friday's jobs data, blamed the disappointing increase in nonfarm payrolls on the weather, or dismissed the report as being inconsistent with the recovery they see unfolding.

But even if we view the January employment data in its most optimistic light, there's plenty of other evidence that suggests current employment conditions and prospects for the year ahead are unencouraging, to say the least, including:

1. Surveys that consistently show unemployment is worse than official statistics indicate

"Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment"

Gallup's U.S. employment measures report the percentage of U.S. adults in the workforce, ages 18 and older, who are underemployed and unemployed, without seasonal adjustment. "Underemployed" respondents are employed part time, but want to work full time, or they are unemployed. "Unemployed" respondents are those within the underemployed group who are not employed, even for one hour a week, but are available and looking for work. Results for each 30-day rolling average are based on telephone interviews with approximately 30,000 adults. Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ± 0.7 percentage points.

2. Surveys that show small businesses remain reluctant to hire

"Many Small Businesses Hiring Fewer Workers than Needed" (Gallup)

PRINCETON, NJ -- Half of small-business owners (51%) who employ people other than themselves hired new workers in 2010, according to the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey. However, of these, 42% hired fewer new employees than they needed -- likely a major reason job growth was so anemic last year. Of course, an additional factor is that 48% of small businesses with more than one employee did not make any new hires in 2010.

The Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey further reveals that the top reason so many of these small-business owners are hiring fewer employees than they need is that they are worried they won't have sales or revenues to justify more employees. This is followed by worries about their future cash flows and whether they will have money to make payroll. Third is their concern that they can't find employees who are qualified for the positions available. Finally, half of owners say they are worried about the potential cost of healthcare.

3. Reports that indicate large businesses are reluctant to hire

"No Rush to Hire Even as Profits Soar" (Wall Street Journal) 

The lack of significant job gains 18 months after the recession was declared over isn't such a mystery when considering how companies were able to return to strong profit growth in a relatively short period. They mainly relied on aggressive job cuts, and with companies now pleased with their revitalized earnings and demand still choppy, they seem to be in no hurry to add to their payrolls.

There are exceptions. Strong exports of energy and grains have farm suppliers and railroads hiring new employees. Retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that curbed expansion plans or shuttered concept stores during the downturn are taking advantage of lower rents to open new outlets, adding to their work force.

But more broadly, companies' outlooks for 2011 have revealed a fresh reason to hold off on hiring: A wide range of industries—as diverse as airlines, appliance makers, auto companies and food sellers—are dealing with sharply higher costs from spiking commodity prices. That is pressuring profit margins and keeping companies guarded about adding to labor costs.

4. Reports that point to major layoffs by state and local governments in the period ahead

"Jobless Rate -- Government Layoffs Could Reverse Trend" (Watertown Daily Times)

State and local governments and school districts have been insulated from massive layoffs during the recession by the injection of federal stimulus funds. But the economy, and with it tax revenues, have not bounced back as expected, so now local governments must confront the choices put off by federal aid.

Stimulus funds for municipal governments will drop from $59 billion this year to $6 billion in the fiscal year starting July 1. Last month, local governments reduced payrolls by 12,000 workers, and more layoffs are looming.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has proposed firing 9,800 state workers. In Texas, nearly 8,100 jobs could be eliminated; in Iowa, 1,500. One economist predicts government job cuts could reach 30,000 a month by the end of the year.

That could ripple through the economy with less spending leading to slower job growth and even more layoffs into next year and the start of a presidential campaign.

Comments

[Frankenstein Government]

Good stuff. They are running out of road. The SHTF this year. They simply cannot continue to patch holes in the dam. Runaway inflation without any job recovery. Seven million foreclosed homes in shadow inventory. A 15M structural job loss and a debt the size of the Queen Mary.

This party hasn't even started yet. In a few months, the party's gonna be ON!

[sam]

The Bush tax cuts are still in effect and have been for the past ten years. They do not work to create jobs in the US. All Congressional Republicans, and their leaders--Rush, Sarah, Glennda Beck, Rupert Murdoch, the Kock Brothers--should be out in the US looking for jobs. Take the Faux News camera crews. Show us exactly where the jobs have been created.

If they can't show us the jobs, they need to be called liars, to their face, and voted out of office and kept out of office.

[Andrea]

Analysing and looking at the data you've provided, employment perspectives for the coming year are, to say the least, really unencouraging.

[Nature Boy]

Just about everyone I know is or has been adjusting to a new standard of living. The only ones that are not are government employees, banksters and maybe healthcare workers.

[sharonsj]

Us posters live in the real world where there are few good-paying jobs and we don't have enough money to pay all the bills. My heating oil went up 15% in three months, and the cap came off the electric company, so that bill is going up too. My property and school taxes go up every year as well. Did my income or my Social Security increase? It did not.

The sh*t already hit the fan, but I'm afraid most Americans are too fat, lazy, and stupid to understand how they are being screwed and who is doing it--otherwise they wouldn't keep voting for these congressional clowns.

[Buy Cardboard Boxes]

Just looking at the graphs is an indicator that our employment situation is not good at all.

[Blurtman]

There is still a long, long way to go until Americans turn out in the streets to protest a la Egypt. Gradualism is the great killer.

[kevinearick]

So, our girl was programmed by the Assembly of God Family Law Formula, with an external religious shell, connected to dc bus subroutines that naturally deliver the bait and switch mechanism (replacing God with property), to attach and bind electrons passing through the legacy system for wealth delivery. Part of my job is to build temporary shoring on each dc bus in this town, and then run an ac bridge across them to re-establish local economic development. Her job, as programmed, is to stop me, on the legacy theory that it is best to kill anything that cannot be controlled by the legacy families. She’s doing an excellent job of shadowing me, destroying all the work in her path.

Remember that Vermont comment about a State living within a snow globe souvenir? California, especially Mendo, makes Vermont look like a piker. The Sheriff’s Office, which is taking over for bankrupt local police forces, is bankrupt; if California shut down all universities and prisons, it still cannot touch its deficit problem; and Jerry Brown’s solution is to increase the tax rate, which he knows with absolute certainty will cause the tax base (tax receipts) to decline, accelerating the deleveraging process, which is already consuming $7 in wealth for every $1 of “income” created by the Fed, with computers creating money on auto mode, which will not be measured until the forensic is completed at some later date, when the biological relativity circuit makes it correction. All they “know” how to do is add delay mechanisms to existing dc tracks.

The next piece will cover technical entrance into the looking glass, and employing the elevator to complete the ac circuit, but, for now, the elevator has stopped for her twice and she has chosen not to enter. All politics are local, and global. The California economy is still predicated on Family Law, and is still rolling out prototypes. These emergency community development plans, designed to replace the failed Federal and State stimulus programs, will do nothing, just as the parents failed, because no one with real income is going to fund this nonsense. All they can do is print money and refuse to account for the new money, making the problem worse with each iteration, as all the dependents wait for their checks to come in the mail, wondering which will be the last.

Those capable of creating real economic profit must get married, raise kids, and run a real business, to re-ignite the economy with a new NPV window, all of which are all still outlawed under the current legacy rules, which kill everything that cannot be controlled. California is still on the same entitlement course, reinforcing Family Law, and it serves as the economic development prototype area for the global IC economy.

Have a nice day.

[Rocky]

The layoffs that are coming to many state and local governments will not just mean more unemployed, they will also mean fewer home health care workers for the elderly, shorter library hours, higher transit fares or reduced service. But if you are a recently retired public safety employee in California, your $100K pension is safe for the time being.

[9% Unemployment Rate is a Statistical Lie]

9% Unemployment Rate is a Statistical Lie

Yesterday, millions of Americans celebrated the unofficial holiday called the Super Bowl. In closing, I would like to share part of a comment I received recently from a regular reader named Samantha. She writes, “We are living in Roman circus-like times! Keep the people entertained and they don’t have to THINK too much and certainly don’t have to notice the corrupt activities of our elected officials. The “Stupor Bowl” is an intentional dumbing down of our society.” Things are a lot worse than the government would like the public to know.

http://usawatchdog.com/9-unemployment-rate-is-a-statistical-lie/

[NC Joe]

Underemployment reporting is joke as well. I know a number of people who are working full time, making 20% - 50% less than they were earning prior to being fired from their old job.

That sounds like a good definition of underemployed to me.