Maybe Not

Good news on the way?

"U.S. Economic Growth Seen Brighter into 2012" (Reuters)

The economy has probably picked up speed in the last few months and will grow moderately in 2012, staving off the need for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The euro zone's sovereign debt crisis is one of the biggest threats to growth next year as economists fear credit lines may freeze up. But the odds of the United States sliding into another recession were seen unchanged from last month.

Er, maybe not.

"UN Issues Dire Warning About World Economy" (Voice of America)

The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development says the outlook for the world economy is very bleak. UNCTAD warns Europe is facing a full-fledged recession next year, and the best the United States and Japan can look forward to is a period of stagnation.

"OECD Detects World Economy Slowing Down" (Agence France-Presse)

PARIS — Leading indicators all point to a slowdown in the world's major developed economies, the OECD said on Monday.

The composite index of leading indicators, designed to highlight turning points in performance, "point to a slowdown in economic activity in all major economies but with some variation" in individual countries, it said in a regular monthly report for December.

"IMF Warns that World Risks Sliding into a 1930s-Style Slump" (The Guardian)

The world risks sliding into a 1930s-style slump unless countries settle their differences and work together to tackle Europe's deepening debt crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.

On a day that saw an escalation in the tit-for-tat trade battle between China and the United States and a deepening of the diplomatic rift between Britain and France, Christine Lagarde issued her strongest warning yet about the health of the global economy and said if the international community failed to co-operate the risk was of "retraction, rising protectionism, isolation".

She added: "This is exactly the description of what happened in the 1930s, and what followed is not something we are looking forward to."

The IMF managing director's call came amid growing concern that 2012 will see Europe slide into a double-dip recession, with knock-on effects for the rest of the global economy. "The world economic outlook at the moment is not particularly rosy. It is quite gloomy," she said.

"E.C.B. Warns of Dangers Ahead for Euro Zone Economy" (New York Times)

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank warned Monday of a perilous year ahead as the sovereign debt crisis collides with slower economic growth and a dearth of market financing for banks.

The dire prediction, contained in the E.C.B.’s twice-yearly report on the risks to the euro area financial system, came as E.U. governments fell short of their target to expand their backup plan for the euro by channeling more resources through the International Monetary Fund.

By some measures, the stresses on the European financial system are approaching or even exceeding levels last seen after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. For example, market, perception of the risk that two large banks in the euro area could fail in the next year have surpassed the previous peak in 2009, according to the E.C.B.’s Financial Stability Review.

“The transmission of tensions among sovereigns, across banks and between the two intensified to take on systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago,” the report said.

"Asia Faces ‘Much Greater’ Risks From Global Slowdown, ADB Says" (Bloomberg)

Asian economies are facing “much greater downside risks” now because of the possibility of a recession in the U.S. and Europe and the threat of destabilizing capital flows, the Asian Development Bank said.

The biggest challenge for policy makers in emerging East Asian nations is to safeguard growth against the threat of another global economic crisis, the Manila-based lender said in its Asia Economic Monitor report today. Uncertainty over the world economy means officials in the region must have “sufficient flexibility” to adjust policies quickly, it said.

“The cautiously optimistic outlook for emerging East Asia is subject to much greater downside risks now than just a few months ago,” the ADB said. “The global economic recovery could flounder if the euro zone and the US fall back into recession, causing another global financial crisis. Large and destabilizing capital flows could complicate the region’s macroeconomic management and jeopardize economic growth."

"IEA Warns High Oil Prices Threaten Global Economy" (Associated Press)

SINGAPORE — High oil prices threaten to worsen a global economic slowdown and crude producers should consider boosting output, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

"The current high oil prices have the potential to strangle the economic recovery in many countries," Fatih Birol said in a speech Wednesday in Singapore. "I hope that high oil prices don't slow down Chinese economic growth and the negative effect that would have on the global recovery."

(Editor's note: I want some of the stuff that the bulls are smoking.)

Comments

[The economy blows]

Three Charts That Blow the Doors Off any Hope

If we step back from the latest shuck-and-jive data from the Ministry of Propaganda, a.k.a. the Status Quo managing perceptions, and take a longer view of the economy, money, credit and the stock market, we get an extremely troubling set of insights.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec11/three-charts12-11.html

[It's all good]

Let them eat student debt?

Colleges pay presidents millions as they raise tuition

Some private colleges are paying their top executives millions of dollars, at the same time they're hiking tuition prices for students.

Vanderbilt University paid its chancellor, Nicholas Zeppos, $1.9 million in 2009, according to the school's most recent tax filings -- enough for up to 43 students to attend Vanderbilt at current prices. His total pay includes a base salary of $673,002, as well as bonus and other compensation.

That same year, Vanderbilt's tuition jumped 4.3%. Since then, the college has hiked tuition more than 3% annually, and now totals $41,332, according to the university.

His overall pay was actually 21.5% lower than it was the previous year, according to the school. Even so, Zeppos' 2009 base was almost four times the average professor's salary of $179,600, the college confirmed.

Zeppos "deserves the compensation he receives," said Mark Dalton, chairman of the college's Board of Trust, in a statement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colleges-pay-presidents-millions-raise-102300703.html

[This is good news]

The people want honest government...that's what driving this...

Ron Paul Is Now the Republican Frontrunner

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ron-paul-is-now-the-republican-frontrunner/

[Looks like we got coal for xmas..keep sleeping]

Gerald Celente - Sneak Peak of the Top Trends for 2012

When asked about his new trend prediction titled ‘Battlefield USA,’ Celente responded, “It just became law. The Bill of Rights in the United States has been abrogated. They passed the new Defense Act and in that Defense Act they have in there, in clear language, anybody can be arrested under the National Defense Authorization Act....

“They authorized the military to go in and take anybody they feel is an enemy of the state, citizen or not, no charges, detain them indefinitely and without a civil trial. No judge, no jury, no trial, no rights of habeas corpus. This is what the United States has become.

Put it all together, it’s going on worldwide. The merger of state and corporate powers is, by definition, fascism. Now they have put the laws into place where fascism has become legalized.

The military could come into anyone’s home, anyone’s office, into anyone’s life and lock you up. Take you away, torture you, blow your brains out and there’s no recourse at all. They are setting us up, they are putting all of the pieces in place because when the banks close and when the economy starts crashing down, now they have the goon squads in place.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/19_Gerald_Celente_-_Sneak_Peak_of_the_Top_Trends_for_2012.html

[Forget about Waldo- Where is Laurie Ferber?]

Laurie Ferber: MF Global Chief Legal Counsel, on CFTC Global Markets Advisory Committee. Where Was She?

A little more background: Ferber spent most of her career at Goldman Sachs – 21 years. And like many, English surmises that “Ferber was likely placed at MF Global in 2009 by J. Christopher Flowers, one of Global’s largest shareholders and also Goldman alum. This would have paved the way for ex-Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine to take the helm in February 2010.” That was a long standing opinion heard in the halls of MF Global long before the collapse of the firm.

Last week we missed Lauri: A board member of MF Global, Chief Legal Counsel, a participant in meetings with the CFTC along with with Mrs. Corzine; author of far-reaching effort to prevent tightening up of rule 1.25, and — which has not yet been reported — Ms. Ferber currently sits on the CFTC Global Markets Advisory Committee. (Shades of Trustee Giddens sitting on the SIPC Modernization Task Force, anyone?)

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/laurie-ferber-mf-global-chief-legal-counsel-cftc-global-markets-advisory-committee-where?

[Past the point of no return]

More Deficits, More Debt

The US government has long passed its Havenstein moment. With so-called “quantitative easing”, which is the modern term for money printing, the Federal Reserve is enabling the federal government to take the soft political option. Spending has not been cutback, despite the perennial shortfall of government revenue. This uncontrolled spending has been accommodated by money printing, which today means expanding bank balance sheets.

In this regard, the United States is different from Weimar Germany, which was a cash-currency economy with nearly all commerce conducted with paper banknotes. In contrast, economic activity in the US is substantially conducted with bank deposits, circulated by check, wire transfer, plastic card, and the like. So ‘money printing’ today is accomplished by expanding bank balance sheets to create more deposit-currency.

In the past year, commercial bank balance sheets have grown $611 billion. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded $516 billion, or 21.6%. This money printing is starting to have its inevitable effect. Over the past six months, M1 is up 22.8%, while M2 has expanded 14.0%. Inflation for the past year as calculated by ShadowStats.com is 11.0%.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_dec192011.html

[Justice-what a concept]

A New Presidential Candidate;

We begin with a new candidate running for President of the United States in the 2012 election representing a newly-formed party, the Justice Party. The former mayor of Salt Lake City, Rocky Anderson, joins us to lay out his populist, progressive third party platform that does not rely on corporate money or the mainstream media, but instead plans to energize grassroots people power that has emerged with the occupy movements.

http://ianmasters.com/content/december-19-new-presidential-candidate-dear-leaders-successor-arming-iraq-allied-our-enemy

[Cnbc poster child]

The Corruption Of America

(One of the investment managers present at this meeting was Steve Rattner, who by that point was already deeply involved in another bit of graft, his efforts to bribe New York state pension-fund managers for large investments into his hedge fund, from which he earned perhaps as much as $100 million. He later settled the charges for a mere $10 million shortly after Andrew Cuomo was elected governor of New York.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-corruption-america?

[Sure beats a retirement party]

Are the sirens going off yet?

Long Beach Gets Downgrade as New York Seashore Town Pays Top Cop $500,000

The Long Island seashore town of Long Beach had the credit rating on its general-obligation bonds lowered five steps by Moody’s Investors Service after the city borrowed $4.25 million -- in part to cover a $500,000 payout to its retiring police commissioner.

Moody’s cut the New York municipality’s rating on $48.3 million of bonds to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, from A1, according to a report released today. It also placed the city on review for possible further downgrades.

Sick Days

Termination payouts include accrued vacation time and unused sick days, according to the Long Beach Herald newspaper. Two other outgoing police department employees cost the city $900,000 in payouts, the Herald reported Nov. 23.

Sofield has retired from the police department and couldn’t be reached there, Carolyn Eaton, his former secretary, said in a telephone interview.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/long-beach-gets-downgrade-as-new-york-seashore-town-pays-top-cop-500-000.html

[Doable Finance]

Even the economy is on a fast pendulum. It will never stop.