Tell Me Why

I've published three charts (and numerous commentaries) over the past two months that suggested the U.S. labor market (and the economy more generally) is in worse shape than many on Wall Street, in Washington, and in the media would have us believe.

In "Not So Encouraging," I highlighted the fact that

a relatively sharp deceleration in the rate of productivity growth -- like we've seen recently -- has, except on two occasions over the past five decades, preceded or been associated with a slowdown in the pace of hiring.

In "Divergent Reality," I posited that

there are only two explanations for the incredible divergence we've seen in recent years. Either 1) the payroll data or sentiment readings are highly suspect (as to which is more likely, I would note that only the former is compiled by the U.S. government); or, 2) the quality of the jobs that many people have nowadays is significantly less than it was before the recession "ended."

In "Weak Equals Weak," I noted that

five decades of data suggest ("unexpectedly") weak durable goods orders will soon translate into ("unexpectedly") weak employment conditions.

And yet, despite these and other warning signs, economists were once again surprised by data -- namely, this morning's jobs report -- that was anything but robust.

Tell me again: why are they considered the "experts"?

Comments

[roger]

The Titanic was designed by top EXPERTS,la creme de la creme, the captain
the best,most experienced they could find,every passenger on that ship had the utmost trust in him. Need say no more.
The Anglo Saxon Capitalism was / is praised to the hilt , the leaders, Greenspan,Reagan,Milton Friedman and a host of others where treated and regarded as the ultimate Gods of Finance,Critics where severely demonized,even chased out the country.Need say no more.

[stevefraser]

Isn't it all about getting the Emperor re-elected, in spite of his radical Left future for our Republic?

[Tom]

Underlying all this game playing is the reality that we've turned our planets weather into a monster that gets "bigger and badder" every season and it's projected to continue heating up our breadbasket states and mixing things up with tornadoes, torrential downpours, flooding, hail - all ruinous to crops, while other areas simply bake in triple digit heat for 90 days or so. Here on the coasts we await ridiculously large and strong hurricanes starting soon.

What's this have to do with finance? Oh, everything. Insurance companies are failing behind supersized payouts from these climate disasters and then refusing to offer their products again in those areas; states are going bankrupt due to tax base erosion and won't be able to rebuild or maintain damaged infrastructure; food shortages will add to our problems soon, as will finding fresh water sources when the ones we have are being polluted by flooding, dried up by excess heat, used for and contaminated by fracking, mining, paper production, etc.

[Psquared]

I think the explanation is the quality of jobs many people have now. I am one of many people who went from 6 figures to under $40,000 a year and I can't find anything else. My job is not a permanent either as I could be told any day to go home there's nothing for me to do. What I find most discouraging are the number of young people who have gone through 4 years of college and 2-3 years of graduate school and have several hundred thousand dollars of student loan debt and cannot find work to pay it back. Many work in restaurants or driving trucks just to have some income. My oldest son dropped out of college after 2 years because he didn't want to be a debt slave.

[Macro Analyst]

Even the government reported numbers on unemployment have lot of ambiguity...In my opinion, the real unemployment is still at around 10% and the U6 is at 14.5%...That gives the real picture of the economy and jobs created...

http://www.economicsfanatic.com/2012/05/real-unemployment-rate-at-97-in-united.html

[Rocky]

You don't see the word stagflation in the press these days, but I think that it has returned. From bread to kleenex, so many consumer goods seem to be up at least 10% in price from last year; and the employment picture remains dismal, with the percentage of the adult population actually working, at its lowest point since December 1981.

We the people are now paying the price for all the financial deregulation that ran amuck in the 2000's, for the wars and the nation building abroad and for the failure of the politicians to fix the health care system and to deal with unfunded mandates in the areas of Social Security, Medicare, public employee pensions and post retirement health benefits of government employees.

For the past two decades, conservative politicians have managed to distract a significant share of the population with social issues such as gay marriage and abortion. The butcher's bill has now come due. It may cost Obama a second term even though I am planning to vote for him.

[wild]

I don't consider them "experts", they are the chaotic distraction amid The Financial Armageddon...the "foxes" sport at knocking flowers off the vine.

Their destructive goal has always been to dominate others with parasitic poison and teeth.

The fact & history doesn't justify these "experts" in anyway, it does identify the "foxes" for what they are.

It is better to forgive occasionally, while unraveling the anger of their poison.

The author logically asks the question: Why are the "experts" giving false excuses? And I would simply reply with the adage I've heard all my life 'they are after something for nothing'. The important work does not go unnoticed~~the author continues to reveal the delusionists, to benefit those that seek honour. http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/09/i-love-the-delusion-of-the-markets-at-this-point-in-the-cycle.html

wild;)

[ErgoDan]

It helps to think of them less as "experts" and more as Court Jesters.