Given that small businesses have traditionally been among the first to hire new employees during past recoveries, can we assume, based on the following reports, that there is no recovery?
"NFIB Jobs Statement: Hiring Trends Inconsistent and Disappointing" (NFIB)
Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on April job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, May 10, 2011. The survey, conducted throughout the month of April, reflects 1,985 randomly-sampled small-business owner respondents:
“Four months into 2011, the trajectory for small-business hiring appears inconsistent and disappointing. February and March gave us some hope, but in April, the average number of net new jobs slipped from 0.17 per firm to 0.04. With fewer increases in new hires and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, we can expect the April job numbers to be a disappointment.
“Drilling down into the (seasonally adjusted) numbers:
- 8 percent of those surveyed increased employment;
- 15 percent reduced employment; and,
- 14 percent reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point from last month.
“And the outlook for future employment growth remains unchanged from March: Only 16 percent plan to increase employment, and 6 percent plan to reduce their workforce, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months.
“The small-business community is still hurting. If the unemployment rate falls, it will certainly not be a result of strong economic growth.”
"Shaky Economy Stalls Small-Business Hiring" (Associated Press)
Ken Levien has no plans to hire more people for his real estate project management company in New York. Levien says his business has only about 85 percent of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
“Things are looking down in the construction business in New York City,” he says.
Levien has a lot of company. Many small-business owners aren’t hiring or expanding because the outlook for the economy, or their own companies, is uncertain.
That raises the question of whether small businesses will give the economy the boost that it needs. Economists say that in past recoveries, small companies were the first to hire. When the economy was improving, they were more nimble than large companies because they didn’t have the bureaucracy that can slow the hiring process. Their hiring helped propel the economy forward.
"CBIZ Small Business Employment Index Shows Slim Gain for April" (CBIZ, Inc.)
The CBIZ Small Business Employment Index (SBEI), a barometer for hiring trends among companies with 300 or fewer employees, increased by .05 percent during April, following an increase of 1.66 percent in March. The uptick reflects the prognosis for sluggish growth in employment and follows a disappointing report on private sector job growth from ADP.
...
Additional take-away points from the April data include:
At-a-glance: Of the companies surveyed, the data shows that 22 percent reported an increase in employee headcount while 25 percent decreased staffing. 53 percent of the companies involved in the survey maintained their number of employees.
Small business sector: Recent BLS data sets have shown a deceleration in hiring at all levels and it would appear that small businesses are matching that trend.
What-to-watch: With so much attention being placed on new business, the small business owner is finely tuned to capacity needs related to imminent demand. There is very little hiring in anticipation of longer range prospective demand.
"Majority of Business Owners Do Not Plan On Hiring In The Near Future" (PRNewswire)
The Small Business Authority, with a portfolio of over 100,000 business accounts, announced today the findings of its SB Authority Market Sentiment Survey, a monthly window into the concerns of independent business owners. Based on a poll of over 2,600 respondents, one of the key findings from the April survey is 67% of business owners do not plan on hiring in the next 6 to 12 months. Additionally, 58% of business owners do not hire recent graduates. When looking at the current 8.2% unemployment rate, 26% of business owners believe that the rate will be higher on Election Day in November, while 40% think it will be lower and 34% believe it will remain unchanged.
Small business hiring – one of the primary components of the overall U.S. employment picture – remained stagnant in April, according to the National Federal of Independent Business.
"Why are Topeka’s Small Businesses Still Not Hiring?" (Examiner.com)
The Topeka Independent Business Association (TIBA) recently completed its second annual Small Business Climate Survey. According to this survey, local businesses don’t expect to make significant changes upward or downward in their employment numbers this year. Only 18% of the businesses reported growth in number of employees in 2011, with almost 28% anticipating a growth in 2012. A majority of businesses surveyed reported no change in the number of employees for 2011 and forecasted the same for 2012.
“Unfortunately, Topeka is replicating what we see throughout the entire US economy—relatively little growth in the number of jobs being created,” said David Sollars, Dean and Professor at the Washburn University School of Business.
Sollars attributes the flat hiring to two primary reasons.
“First, during the recession firms figured out ways to do the same or more with fewer employees,” he says. “Probably more important, however, is the general uncertainty faced by a business owner or manager.
i'm wondering how people keep up with the inevitable breakdown of things like lawnmowers, garage door openers, automobiles, etc. on little to no income. With food and gas prices so high i'm seeing little and very slow activity in maintenance and people letting the grass grow, ducking dental or doctor appointments, not buying needed medication, and going without meals to "make ends meet," and falling further and further behind. Our quality of life is taking a real hit.
i saw this article linked from cryptogon:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-too-broke-bankrupt-105500347.html
which states that many Americans are simply too broke to even afford the $1500 or so it takes to file for bankruptcy.
Look around - there are lots of other signs that many of us are tapped out. i don't know where we go from here.
Posted by: Tom | May 08, 2012 at 06:26 AM
How to fix the U.S. economy
===========================
The President -- Smile, smile and dish out hope.
The Congress -- Start another war.
The Fed -- Print, print and print.
Paul Krugman - Stop austerity. Start stimulus. Magic will happen.
Real Deal - Take Wall Street and dump the whole show into the Atlantic Ocean. A gigantic burst of energy, hope, justice will replace doom and rot.
Posted by: Real Deal | May 08, 2012 at 02:36 PM