Risk of Downturn Is High

At last week's The Big Picture conference, respected strategist and newsletter writer Michael Belkin posted a comprehensive table with details about the recessions the U.S. has experienced over the past 110 years and what has happened to share prices during those times.

Given that the current business cycle is 40 months old (vs. the average expansion of 45-months -- or 37 months if you exclude the bubble-blowing era that began with the Greenspan Fed), the risk is high that another downturn will be starting soon (if it hasn't already done so).

Under the circumstances, it's worth keeping in mind, as Belkin noted, that the average recession-period decline for the Dow Jones Industrials average is 30.6 percent.

Uh-oh.

FYI, that was just one of the topics I discussed in yesterday's weekly podcast, "Looking Out Over the Investment Landscape," at my new members-only website, Panzner Insights.

If you are interested in reading and hearing more unique updates on markets, economics, and geopolitics, you might want to consider joining those who've already signed up.

Comments

[Antisthenes]

Does your prediction take into account the massive manipulation of markets by central banks, other political interventions and policies that aim to increase debt but not increase wealth creation? I fear not. These manipulations are of course only postponing the inevitable but in doing so storing up a much bigger crash when it comes.

[Neil Houghton]

nice article & thanks for share
Looking forward for more sharing

[How do you price fraud?]

Max Keiser talks to a former fraud squad detective, Rowan Bosworth-Davies of Rowans-blog.blogspot.co.uk, about the organized criminal conspiracy and racket happening right now in the City of London and why the police are not allowed to investigate without approval from politicians.

http://maxkeiser.com/2012/10/16/kr354-keiser-report-enema-state/

[Bailout Bonanza]

Greg Palast: “Mitt Romney’s Bailout Bonanza: How He Made Millions From The Rescue of Detroit”
Investigative reporter Greg Palast reveals how Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney made some $15 million on the auto bailout and that three of Romney’s top donors made more than $4 billion for their hedge funds from the bailout. Palast’s report is part of a film-in-progress called, “Romney’s Bailout Bonanza.” Palast is the author of several books, including recently released New York Times best seller, “Billionaires & Ballot Bandits: How to Steal An Election in 9 Easy Steps.”

http://youtu.be/RwG_sBQU7OQ

[Black hole economy]

Neil Barofsky on Pandit and Obama Administration Bankster Friendliness on Bill Moyers

Bill Moyers was taken enough with his chat with former SIGTARP chief Neil Barofsky that he’s having two segments with him. This is the first, which focuses on the Vikram Pandit sudden exit and Citigroup generally as well as the Obama Administration’s finance friendly policies.

Barofsky also shares his deep disappointment in President Obama for protecting — instead of reigning in — the big banks.

“I thought that if there was ever going to be a political figure that would take on the interests of Wall Street, it was going to be President Obama. And that just didn’t happen,” Barofsky says. “It was the exact opposite of that… He had the same ideology as Secretary Geithner and, frankly, the same ideology as a lot of those people who came from Wall Street.”"

http://billmoyers.com/content/neal-barofskys-disappointment-with-vikram-pandit-and-president-obama/

[Jim]

The economy certainly appears to be slowing down.