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« The Littlest Victims | Main | Media Appearance: SmartMoney Online Video »

March 03, 2009

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We have had a massive loss of asset prices $25-50 trillion so far & wealth deflation effect that could take 10 years to rebuild asset prices world wide. This would overtake any policy responses we have at a national level as global current accounts fall/prices fall & assets fall it becomes a negative feedback loop.

The fall in assets across the globe is a very underreported story. My estimates are that US has lost $25 trillion in assets (Homes- $8T, Equities 12T, Corporate debt/plant & stock $5T)

We have another $10T at risk in the next year in the US. The EU has just started losing on the US scale. BRIC & Japan & rest of G20 is also falling. We could lose $50-75Trillion total during the 2007-11 period. That is massive wealth loss that could take a decade or more to reflate & have strong global GDP growth.


I think we need to start talking about the plan Z scenario. Where we get G20 central banks, finance min, political leaders & top 100 bank leaders to get a monster $50 Trillion plan ready. This is our insurance policy. When we look at the available capital between Private Equity/Hedge/sovereign wealth funds thats $5-10Trillion. G20 National budgets US/Japan/China/EU could add $5trillion. G20 Central banks could have $10 trillion added to their balance sheets. Global 10000 corporates have $2Trillion+ in working capital/cash. The G20 banks have $20 trillion in deposits

together we could coordinate the reflation of global balance sheets. If we had Plan Z ready and kicked it into action with a global weekly coordination on Friday & a media communications blitz over a year we would drive confidence and drive demand IS-LM style and get price levels stable.

If we don't start discussing this at a global level this could overtake any other policy responses we have.

No...I vote for meltdown (i.e. Financial Armageddon).
Having had my living standard continuously reduced since the Reagan years, having never been able to realistically afford a house anywher near coastal california (where I grew up)...NO, hell no!

Let's stop this corruption, this unsustainable farce, this rigged game of the financial elites, this system wide corruption.

I'm willing to let it all to go down the toilet and I prefer to take my chances in the re construction.

I'm with Jack here. Flush this crap , cuz its stinking up the whole joint .

I dont think that our dire circumstances have sunk in for the upper middle class or the majority of the midle class cuz they still watch cnn and fox etc .
They plug themselves in daily
to upgrade their 'faith and confidence ' programming .

So they dont get much of a view to reality unless it smacks them in the face in a very personal way .
Even then , it will
just be another 'personal experience ' cuz we've become so specialized and self-concentrated in our
consciousness of the world
that its impossible for most ppl to have a big picture perspective . Or somethin like that .

A 2008 movie aimed primarily at children that gives an idea of the experience of the Great Depression (in a way suitable for children, but potentially instructive to adults with only a vague historical consciousness - i.e. the great majority) is "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl"

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0846308/

Spouse and self enjoyed it quite a bit - we rented it for a dollar from a "redbox" dvd vending machine

There's also Russell Baker's memoir, "Growing Up." Informative and of course often funny.

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