The good news, according to the National Retail Federation, is that 195 million U.S. shoppers visited stores and websites this past weekend, an impressive 13% jump over last year.
The bad news: average spending fell nearly 8% to $343.31 per person, the lowest level in four years, while overall sales were up only 0.5% versus last year’s total.
In sum, it looks like a lot more people came out to cherry pick the biggest bargains — but not much else. That doesn’t seem to be a particularly encouraging sign, especially for retailers’ margins.
Brown shoots, anyone?
Return to labor was kept below costs, liquidating assets, with a temporary credit cushion, which has now been eliminated, and soon everyone is going to realize that their pensions are gone too.
This is going to get much uglier than most are currently anticipating, even if they give the states another temporary bailout, and lots of these Christmas sales are actually a liquidation prior to collapse of commercial real estate.
I would expect those retail space closures to accelerate by quite a bit after the holidays.
And those traders accustomed to free returns due to government largesse, that fail to get out, are likely to find themselves in the trap as well.
Posted by: kevinearick | November 29, 2009 at 06:36 PM
I don't understand these figures. A 13% increase in the number of shoppers and an 8% decrease in sales per shopper would produce a 4% increase in total sales, not a 0.5% increase. The figures that I saw from the NRF were 195 million shoppers this year spending $343.31 per shopper, or $66.9 billion, versus 172 million shoppers last year spending $372.57 per shopper, or $64.3 billion, which is indeed a 4% increase. Yet I have seen the 0.5% figure repeated elsewhere. Does anybody know why this is?
Posted by: www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1581213302 | November 30, 2009 at 11:20 AM
I believe the discrepancy stems from the fact that the total number of shoppers includes some who are double- or triple-counted, though the NRF doesn't make that very clear. Here is the link to the actual data: http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Documentsop=showlivedocsp_id=4110.
Posted by: Michael Panzner | November 30, 2009 at 11:35 AM
I just looked at the NRF's press release, which says that total spending for the weekend this year was $41.2 billion, not $66.9 billion. My guess, then, is that they are talking about 195 million shoppers visiting stores or websites this year, of whom about 120 million actually bought something (total of $41.2 billion), averaging $343.31 per actual buyer, versus 172 million visitors last year, of whom 110 million bought something, averaging $372.57 per actual buyer (total of $41.0 billion).
Posted by: www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1581213302 | November 30, 2009 at 11:44 AM
I did my fair share of shopping like the good little consumer. The truth is, I have very little extra money and I refuse to dip into my credit cards.
Posted by: Chris R | November 30, 2009 at 03:00 PM