The Hollywood Set Recovery

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Many in the mainstream media keep referring to "recovery" as though it is an incontrovertible fact. But to me, the notion that the U.S. economy is on the mend is like a Hollywood set, comprised of realistic-looking facades that are, on closer inspection, empty shells. The following Associated Press report, "Poll Finds Debt-Dogged Americans Stressed Out," is a case in point [italics mine]:

The economy trudges ahead yet debt dogs many Americans, stressing them out even as they firm up their own financial foundations.

There are new jobs produced but old worries persisting for people despite belt-tightening and boosted savings, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll.

About 46 percent of those surveyed say they're suffering from debt-related stress, and half of that group described their stress as "great deal" or "quite a bit." On the other hand, about 53 percent say they feel little or no stress at all.

That's in line with findings from last year, even though times seem better today: The economy is growing and generating jobs, and households have made progress in repairing their financial footing, trimming debt, watching spending and saving more.

It's a big turnaround from a year ago -- a shrinking economy, jobs jettisoned as businesses struggled to survive the deepest recession since the 1930s.

So why aren't the stressed -- and the not-so-stressed -- feeling better?

For starters, it just doesn't feel much like a recovery to many people.

Unemployment is stubbornly high -- 9.9 percent. The jobless face fierce competition for work. Those with a job are watching their paychecks shrink.

A growing number of people are at risk of falling into foreclosure, and only those with the most stellar credit probably can get a new loan. AP-GfK polls show that only 20 percent say the economy is good, compared with 15 percent last year.

In sum, eighty percent of Americans don't believe the economy has turned a corner and nearly half are struggling with financial concerns. And yet, my sense from reading the article is that the writer believes the results don't quite jibe with her more optimistic view of reality.

Could it be the other way around?

Comments

[Noogan]

It's all an illusion.

"The root of the matter is this: we have been ruled by men who live by illusions: the illusion that you can spend money you haven't earned without eventually going bankrupt or falling into the hands of your creditors; the illusion that real jobs can be conjured into existence by Government decree, like rabbits out of a hat; the illusion that there is some other way of creating wealth than hard work and satisfying your customers; the illusion that you can have freedom and enterprise without believing in free enterprise; the illusion that you can have an effective foreign policy without a strong defense force, and a peaceful and orderly society without absolute respect for the law." ~ Margaret Thatcher

For some historical perspective to our own era:

Rolling Back the Socialist Tide

http://spectator.org/

Also:

What Barack Obama is Thinking

http://spectator.org/archives/2010/05/26/what-barack-obama-is-thinking

[Luke]

at some point the stress ends because you no longer give a shit about anything, anybody, or life. isn't that what TPTB want? But beware, the most dangerous human is that who has lost everything and no longer has anything to lose. At that point, you have major major trouble and the revolution begins. American Idol is over and the sheep are beginning to stir. bahh! bahhh!

[Luke]

as an afterthought. I recall the VietNam war. Everyone--or I should say just about everyone--fell for the government lines about the war: noble cause, freedom, etc. And then gradually it all didn't make sense and then the lies started to become the reality and slowly---very, very slowly the public got angry and wanted the war ended immediately because the American public finally figured out they'd been had and lied to by all the Washington politicians. yet we've continued to elect nothing but flip sides of the same coin. The only good words ever uttered by George Wallace was that there wasn't a dime's bit of difference between the parties. And so the politicians have focused on wedge issues to keep us divided among race, religion, sexual identity, abortion. The politicians don't really believe what they're saying. They've held their fingers in the air to determine which way the wind is blowing and then used that issue to win the election, gain power and earn MONEY! LOTS and LOTS of it!

[Ron Stone]

I agree. It is the other way around. Anyway, we have a long, long way to go as you pointed out in your excellent book covering the 4 big issues still looming. Personally, I'm doing all I can to prepare for a disaster. There is very little downside to this. Unfortunately, between all the government and media green chutes hype, many people won't even see it coming till the train is on top of them. I hope we're both wrong.
Ron

[afep]

"the most dangerous human is that who has lost everything and no longer has anything to lose"

The most dangerous human is the one born to wealth and privilege who believes it is their god-given right to remain wealthy and privileged. The most dangerous person to that most dangerous human is the one you mentioned.

[Luke]

there is no recovery. we are in the eye of the hurricane. drive down main street and notice all the shops that have closed. look at the empty storefronts of the glitzy new strip malls. while I envy those who continue to enjoy the remnants which exist, their lives are soon to be turned upside down. No sympathy here. Most of them were shits who stepped all over others to get ahead and their bitchy wives who think they deserve all their trappings and SUVs. Let the revolution begin.

[HSpencer]

This will be a very hot summer. We are seeing 90 degrees in May, and summer is 22 days off yet. We have the upcoming drumbeat of the Korean War of 2010, the upcoming Middle East Iran War of somewhere between 2007 and whenever someone's patience runs out, we have the Gulf Oil Leak disaster, unemployment, political scandals too many to list, foreclosures,
rising prices of all types, hopelessness of people already hit by weather related stuff, floods, tornadoes, and then the near to come hurricane season. Worst thing I have heard of to light the riot fuse may be the failure to act on the extended unemployment benefits. (What have I missed?)
When I was growing up on the farm, and the cows got loose, SOMEBODY JUMPED UP AND DID SOMETHING!!!
HINT HINT
No one is minding the store in DC?

[Marion Shaw]

Well, the cows are certainly loose in
the Gulf and no one even seems capable
of projecting the horrific impact it
will have on the local and national
economy. The former head of Shell Oil
was interveiwed on CNN (Sunday) and he
said a similar spill occurred in 1990
near Saudi Arabia. A flotilla of super
tankers were sent in, and a large por-
tion of the oil and water was pumped
into the tankers; taken to land some-
where and separated for further use;
a technology which has long existed
although he said it was expensive. He
thought this was the most effective way
to deal with the present crisis, especially as the pipe is still gushing.
The whinning that this has never been
done before and the well is so deep
just doesn't cut it. A bright ten year
old can see that supertankers is the
only rational way to go; and go fast.
Who cannot bear to see the specter of
a flotilla of clean-up tanks in the
Gulf of Mexico? Is there a money rat
or pr rat caught in someone's brain
and officials cannot jump up and round
up the cows before the whole thing is
ruined forever?
I think this is relevant to Panzer;s
article today.

[Bob Crane]

In ancient Rome, people were kept occupied with circus and gladiator fights, as the empire crumbled. We are constantly amazed at the number of people who watch, debate, and spend hours commenting on America Idol or Dancing with the Stars.
Was Billy better than Susie? Who will win next week?
Who cares? What possible relevance does this have to anyone's
life.?
People in America know more about celebrities kid's, than what their own kids are up to.

[Luke]

it's not just dancing with the stars. it's the stupidity of arguing over republican or democrat. it doesn't make a difference. name me one politician who left congress without an incredible fortune. i can't find one.

[Blurtman]

Over a year ago that Obama made that ill-advised green shoots comment.

Over two years ago that Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

Could be ten years or more in this quagmire.

[Blurtman]

Correction: It has been over 1.5 years since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (September 2008).

[sharonsj]

I don't see much of a recovery among my peers. I have a friend who is a self-employed lawyer in Milwaukee. If it wasn't for Social Security, which pays for her mortgage, she'd be homeless. Yesterday I got a call from a friend in Baltimore. She is a self-employed travel agent; he is an accountant. They can no longer afford their rent and electricity. Two other friends, in Los Angeles and New York, are disabled and cannot work; they are having their benefits cut. Another friend earns $500 a week and manages to pay all her bills because she never takes a vacation and rarely eats out. In fact, when I think about it, I only have two friends who are financially okay. All the rest are living on the edge--and every one of these people is or was a white-collar worker with a college degree!

[Pal]

Wasn't that the Hillary Witch who kept screaming 'The worst economy since Herbert Hoover' when ole Georgie had 7% unemployment rate back in 2001-2 area?

What ever happened to that witch and why haven't we heard her screaming about 9%+ unemployment?

Sorry for playing politics I just really hated that voice of hers when she scratched the blackboard.

[Pal]

OK, I will try to be contrite by sharing a prediction:

Bob Prechter, Elliot Wave Theorist, prediction....you aint gonna like it!

Violent up and down strong BEAR market until eventual sub 1987 market levels bottom in June 2016 which will mark the begining a new supercycle bull market.

Lock the bathroom door and smoke that one or just hold your breath until 2016.