Financial Armageddon

A Vision of Our Future?

"Pitchfork-Wielding Virginia Farmers Rally Against Birthday Party Fine" (Fox News)

Pitchfork-wielding Virginia farmers rallied to support a woman who claims local officials came down on her for, among other things, hosting a children's birthday party on her spread.

Martha Boneta, owner of Liberty Farms in the northern village of Paris, was threatened with nearly $5,000 in fines for selling produce and crafts and throwing unlicensed events, including a birthday party for her best friend's child. She told FoxNews.com she wasn't doing anything farmers haven't done for generations, and at a recent zoning board meeting, her agrarian friends literally showed up with pitchforks to express their support.

“It’s rather odd that I’m the only farmer in the county having these issues,” Boneta said. “It’s customary to do these things. It’s done through on farms throughout Virginia to help farming and agriculture.” Boneta was told that she did not have the proper event permits for the party and other events, including wine tastings, craft workshops, and pumpkin carving.

“Why I would need a permit for a pumpkin carving?” she said. Boneta was also threatened with fines for selling produce and products not grown or made on the 70-acre farm in a small store she operated on the property. But she said she already had a special license issued to her in 2011 that allowed her to run a “retail farm shop” where at the time, she made it clear that she intended to sell handspun yarns and craft items like birdhouses in addition to fresh vegetables, eggs, and herbs.

I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing the torches -- and whatever else -- come out?

Econonomic and Social Conditions: More Closely In Synch

"Crime will run rampant as police departments and other government services that help maintain  public order eliminate or cut back on jobs, overtime, and equipment, while growing numbers of formerly law-abiding but now desperate citizens reveal their dark side."
-- Chapter 9, "Economic," Financial Armageddon

Although a number of the predictions I made in my March 2007 book have come true, one thing we haven't seen is a dramatic rise in illegal activity, despite evidence, as sociologist Steven Box concluded in his 1977 book, Recession, Crime, and Punishment, that a "deterioration in material circumstances [leads] to more crime."

Some have argued -- probably rightly so -- that the reason why things are different this time is because an extraordinary large percentage of Americans are currently in prison. Others maintain that the modern social safety net has alleviated at least some of the pressure that turns law-abiding citizens into opportunistic criminals. Regardless, a report at Business Insider, "Stockton Goes Bankrupt And Already The Murder Rate Is Soaring," suggests we may be getting closer to the point where economic circumstances and social conditions are more closely in synch:

Stockton, California is filing for the largest bankruptcy of any U.S. city in history due to the decline in the once hot housing market and an intake of debt during its boom years.

The city has cut more than $90 million in spending over the past few years, specifically in its police department. The city has cut over one quarter of its police jobs, which has led to a "surge in murders," and has created an "emboldened criminal element" in the city. According to police spokesman Joe Silva, the city has had 87 murders since the start of 2011, 29 of which have already occurred this year. In contrast, there were 35 murders in 2009 and 48 in 2010. With six months left in the year, there have already been more murders in the city since the start of 2011 than the two-year stretch of 2009-2010.

Thieves Expand Their Horizons, Yet Again

Time for the latest installment of "If we're in a recovery, why are people stealing everything that isn't nailed down?" As I've noted previously -- here, here, and here, for example -- the past few years have seen a notable uptick in the breadth and depth of unusual items that have been targeted by thieves. As the following reports suggest, that trend seems to be continuing, unabated:

Cosmetics

"Pair Accused of Pocketing, Reselling $20K in Perfume, Cosmetics" (Washington Post)

The young women walked so quickly, grabbed items from the shelves so confidently, that employees at the Glenarden J.C. Penney might have thought they were out shopping for Mother’s Day.

Except this was their second trip to the store that day. And Mom probably did not ask for $20,000 in perfume and makeup.

The women, police said at a news conference Friday, were professional shoplifters — bit players in an organized ring of cosmetically-inclined thieves. Three and four times a day, police said, Darquesha Wilkinson, 19, and Latasha Mungo, 24, both of the District, would walk into department stores across the region, swipe high-end perfume, lotions and makeup, then sell them on the streets at a discount, often out of the trunks of their cars. And until Tuesday — when a J.C. Penney loss-prevention employee recognized the pair as suspects in previous shoplifting incidents — they hadn’t been charged there, blending in with other shoppers because they were charming and well-dressed, police said.

“That’s what they do. This is their job,” said Sgt. Aubrey Thompson, who heads the Prince George’s County Police’s Organized Retail Crime Unit. “It only takes them but 30 seconds.”

Grave markers

"'Pathetic' Thieves Take Minnesota Vets' Markers" (StarTribune.com)

Bronze stars are disappearing from the graves of so many Minnesota soldiers that some veterans officials are urging families to place the memorial markers at home instead of in the cemetery.

In Isanti County alone, more than 200 stars have disappeared from three local cemeteries in recent weeks and similar thefts -- presumably carried out by crooks who plan to sell the stars for scrap -- have plagued veterans' graves in Anoka County.

"It's really unfortunate that there are people among us who are so cowardly that they prey on the people who have demonstrated the greatest bravery," Anoka spokeswoman Martha Weaver said. "That's really pathetic."

Airbags and catalytic converters

"Car Thieves Are Increasingly Looting for Oddball Parts" (MSN Autos)

Airbags and catalytic converters containing precious metals are all the rage on the automotive black market.

In the dark of night a few weeks ago in Santa Monica, Calif., thieves made off with so many parts -- including the airbags -- from a 9-year-old Honda Accord that the car was declared totaled. In Detroit, there's been a spike in the number of catalytic-converter thefts of late; looters are lured by the precious metals contained in the parts, which can fetch as much as $150 from scrap yards, according to the Detroit News.

Along with catalytic converters and airbags, thieves have recently begun coveting auto parts such as tires, rims and navigation systems and hawking them on the black market. According to Detroit's CBS affiliate, the culprits responsible for stealing these oddball car parts are increasingly turning to Craigslist and other online sales outlets to unload them.

One possible reason for this burst in car-part-stealing creativity is that technology has made it more difficult to make off with an entire car. So, instead, thieves simply target individual parts. A catalytic converter, for instance, can be jacked in a few minutes by thieves who roll beneath a vehicle with a battery-powered saw and make a few cuts.

Religious items

"Metal Thieves Steal Fresno Church Cross" (UTSanDiego.com)

FRESNO, Calif. — Metal thieves used a sledgehammer to smash a California church stained-glass window and steal a cross and other religious items.

Fresno police say they have recovered most of the items taken from St. Therese Roman Catholic Church.

Father Michael Burchfield says the thieves broke into the church earlier this month and ripped off metal fasteners from priest vestments.

Also taken was a 2-foot cross that contained a splinter from the cross on which Jesus Christ was crucified.

Plants

"Gardener: Thieves Stole $1,000 Worth Of Plants From 2 Mpls Gardens" (WCCO)

MINNEAPOLIS — The tough economy may have turned thieves to steal a different kind of green.

Somebody stole plants and planters — worth more than $1,000 — from two yards in the south Minneapolis.

Abby Rutchick has lived on her tree-lined street in Linden Hills for more than 30 years.

“You can kind of tell we’re all gardeners and spend a lot of time out here,” she said. “And really enjoy it, it’s a passion.”

Sometime between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m., somebody stole dozens of plants and planters from her front yard.

Rutchick discovered the thefts when she opened the door Wednesday morning.

“Came out and looked a little further to see all my planters were gone, and everything that was in the pot is gone,” Rutchick said. “It still looks very full, but we know everything that’s missing.”

She says the thieves seemed to know what they were doing.

“These were very discerning plant thieves,” she said.

Gardening equipment

"Summer Brings Rash of Lawn Mower Thefts" (TriCities.com)

A slew of lawn equipment has gone missing, in what police said has been a rash of storage shed break-ins.

Bristol,Tenn., police have seen an increase in thefts of lawn mowers, weed trimmers, chainsaws and hedge trimmers, Capt. Charlie Thomas said. The equipment is often stored in an outdoor shed, and Thomas said the thefts have occurred all over the city, often in the early morning hours.

Scuba gear

"Dive Shop Theft Suspect Caught on Security Cameras" (WINK)

LEE COUNTY, Fla. - Investigators have released surveillance photos from a May 10th theft at a Lee County scuba diving shop.

"We trust our customers, I love my customers, but I do have surveillance cameras throughout the entire store," said ScubaVice Diving Center owner Ramiro Palma.

It's a security measure that came in handy at the store on McGregor Boulevard, after a young man and woman came into the store on May 10.  Deputies say the woman distracted the clerk while the man grabbed a diving computer out of the display case and stuffed it down his pants.

Snack foods

"Discarded Wrappers Used to Track Snack Thieves" (Associated Press)

Police say they followed a trail of discarded wrappers to track down four people who allegedly burglarized a Little League snack bar.

La Mesa Police Sgt. Colin Atwood tells U-T San Diego (http://bit.ly/JEcEyF) that police were called late Thursday night about a lot of noise at the Rolando Little League snack bar in Rolando Park.

Atwood says officers followed empty cookie, chip and Cheetos packages for about two blocks to a home where more snacks were found in a car.

Atwood says one man, two women and a girl were arrested for investigation of burglary. The girl was taken to Juvenile Hall.

Dogs

"Pet Thefts on the Rise" (WRGB)

SCHENECTADY -- A local family is desperately searching for their dog after she was taken from her home on Wednesday.

Foxy, a pomeranian, was stolen from the front porch of her family's McClellan Street home while her owner was inside for two minutes.  A neighbor witnessed the alleged thieves, a woman and a young girl, pull up in front of the house and snatch the dog.

Authorities are encouraging pet owners to be on the lookout, as pet thefts are on the rise during summer months.  The most regular dog thieves are those who are training fighting dogs.

"They will steal other peoples dogs and actually use them for what they call 'bait dogs,'" said Brad Shear of the Mohawk Hudson Humane Society.

The American Kennel Club tracks thefts through a national database and cite a 32% increase in 2011.

'The American Dream For the Average Man Doesn't Exist Any More'

Although your average Wall Street "expert" thinks it's only a matter of time before things return to normal (whatever that is), anybody with half a brain who has been paying even the slightest bit of attention can see that the game has changed.

In fact, all you have to do is sample a few of the conversations and ruminations swirling around us in today's post-financial-crisis world to know that the good old days aren't coming back anytime soon -- if ever.

In "American Dream Faces Harsh New Reality, " KUNC (Community Radio of Northern Colorado) we get a sense of just how much perspectives have changed -- and are changing -- in a country that has long been seen as the land of opportunity and the leader of the free world.

The American Dream is a crucial thread in this country's tapestry, woven through politics, music and culture.

Though the phrase has different meanings to different people, it suggests an underlying belief that hard work pays off and that the next generation will have a better life than the previous generation.

But three years after the worst recession in almost a century, the American Dream now feels in jeopardy to many.

The town of Lorain, Ohio, used to embody this dream. It was a place where you could get a good job, raise a family and comfortably retire.

"Now you can see what it is. Nothing," says John Beribak. "The shipyards are gone, the Ford plant is gone, the steel plant is gone." His voice cracks as he describes the town he's lived in his whole life.

"I mean, I grew up across the street from the steel plant when there was 15,000 people working there," he says. "My dad worked there. I worked there when I got out of the Air Force. It's just sad."

Uniquely American

The American Dream is an implicit contract that says if you play by the rules, you'll move ahead. It's a faith that is almost unique to this country, says Michael Dimock of the Pew Research Center.

"When Germans or French are asked the same questions about whether it's within all of our power to get ahead, or whether our success is really determined by forces outside our control, most German and French respondents say, 'No, success is really beyond our control,' " Dimock says.

In the wake of the recession, that sentiment is now growing in this country.

"I think the American Dream for the average man doesn't exist any more," retiree Linden Strandberg says on a recent visit to the Smithsonian American History museum in Washington, D.C.

To listen to the associated broadcast report, click on the play button below:

To read the rest of the story, click here.

Thieves Expanding Their Horizons Even More

In "Thieves Expand Their Horizons," I noted that America's "recovery" had "spawned an illicit interest in items that have not been traditionally targeted by criminal elements," including utility poles, air conditioners, hot air balloons, ammonia tanks, and outdoor furniture. A follow-up post, "Thieves Still Expanding Their Horizons," added livestock, pets, prescription drugs, tailgates, fishing reels, medical services, and bridges to the list.

But that wasn't the end of it. Despite all the "good news" we keep hearing lately (not to mention a stock market that only goes up), it seems that the range of goods and services being wrongfully acquired (and likely sold for quick cash at a fraction of their true value) is expanding fast, as the following reports attest:

Detergent

"Grime Wave" (The Daily)

It’s a dirty job: Police nationwide take on soaring Tide detergent theft

Law enforcement officials across the country are puzzled over a crime wave targeting an unlikely item: Tide laundry detergent.

Theft of Tide detergent has become so rampant that authorities from New York to Oregon are keeping tabs on the soap spree, and some cities are setting up special task forces to stop it. And retailers like CVS are taking special security precautions to lock down the liquid.

One Tide taker in West St. Paul, Minn., made off with $25,000 in the product over 15 months before he was busted last year.

“That was unique that he stole so much soap,” said West St. Paul Police Chief Bud Shaver. “The name brand is [all] Tide. Amazing, huh?”

Tide has become a form of currency on the streets. The retail price is steadily high — roughly $10 to $20 a bottle — and it’s a staple in households across socioeconomic classes.

Cooking Oil

"Rising Gas Prices Create Smoking-Hot Demand for Cooking Oil" (USA Today)

In today's economy, it's tough enough being a restaurant owner, but now you have to safeguard your garbage, too.

From California to Maine, thefts of used cooking oil are on the rise — driven by the rising price of oil that makes biofuels more cost competitive with fossil fuels. Like thieves who ransack foreclosed homes for copper wire, higher prices for used cooking oil can attract people with a hunger for crime as well as dinner.

The old cooking oil, which has been used for decades in the chemical and animal feed industries, is now a hot commodity, as biodiesel manufacturers fight for raw materials . Biodiesel is gaining in popularity as a transportation fuel. The largest consumers are fleet operators, including municipal buses and courier firms like FedEx.

X-Rays

"Thieves Stealing X-Rays For The Silver Inside" (CBS)

BOSTON – You can now add X-rays to the list of targets for metal thieves looking to make a quick buck in a down economy.

Two Florida men have been charged with stealing old X-rays from Lowell General Hospital that were supposed to be recycled back in August.

Lowell Police Captain Kelly Richardson says the suspects are also accused of similar attempts at Anna Jaques Hospital in Newburyport and Saints Medical Center in Lowell.

There’s silver in X-ray film sheets and it can be harvested by using a simple chemical solution.

“When they melt the film the silver comes off and then they turn around and sell the silver,” says Captain Richardson.

Sewer Grates

"Thieves Swipe Sewer Grates in New Haven" (WTNH)

New Haven, Conn. - Police in New Haven are trying to figure out who's been swiping dozens of sewer grates from city streets.

Fair Haven Heights has been hit hard. At almost every turn of Russell Street new grates are visible. Police say they're replacing them as fast as they can.

"As soon as anything would be reported stolen, it would be taken care of," said David Hartman, New Haven Police, "even on the overnight, it would be an emergency."

If the gaping hole was left uncovered someone could be seriously hurt, and even killed. In the last three weeks, 40 sewer grates have been pried up from the street and stolen.

Bleachers

"Bleachers Stolen From Baseball Fields" (MyFoxNY.com)

Thieves carted off almost all of the bleachers from a Long Island baseball complex and left behind a partially disassembled set they didn't finish stripping.

It happened at Smith Field at the Sachem Little League complex in Ronkonkoma.  It's unclear exactly when the thefts took place but little pieces from the 300 pound bleachers were found scattered across the field over the weekend.

Mark Zellman is the assistant commissioner of the league that uses the facility.

"It's just the state of the economy, showing how tough things are," Zellman says.

The gates of the stadium were still locked, making it appear that the bleachers were taken apart and lifted over the fence piece-by-piece.

Tubas

"Hold On To Your Tuba: Brass Bandits Hit L.A. Schools" (NPR)

The words "black market" usually summon images of drugs, guns or pirated DVDs — not tubas. Yet authorities in Los Angeles say the instrument is in such high demand that the black market may be what's driving a wave of local tuba thefts.

Ruben Gonzalez is teaching an after-lunch band class at the scene of one recent tuba crime — the music room at South Gate High School outside L.A. He starts with a request only a band teacher would make.

"Make sure we rinse out folks — we don't need any hamburgers or hot chilies coming through those instruments," he says.

While the kids rinse out and tune up, Gonzalez points to a row of gashes along the door jamb. He and his students noticed them one morning earlier this school year. "I'm walking in, I'm like, 'That was never there before,' and I'm like, 'You know what, guys? I think somebody tried to break in,' " he says.

Then Gonzalez noticed something else. Once the thieves got in, they bypassed a computer as well as a stash of valuable flutes, saxophones and clarinets. According to Gonzalez, "All they took were the tubas."

Heat pumps

"Thieves Steal Church's Heat Pumps" (Morganton News Herald)

MORGANTON -- A local church has become the latest victim of the growing number of copper thefts in Burke County.

Congregants at Willow Tree AME Church reported Saturday that someone stripped four heat pumps at the 2500 Willow Tree Church Road building, according to a sheriff’s report. Damage was estimated at $18,000.

The Rev. Rupert G. Ferguson said his parishioners are irate about the theft.

“They ripped us off,” he said. “… They wreaked havoc.”

Bricks

"St. Louis Brick Thieves Becoming More Brazen" (Riverfront Times)

​The bandits who are slowly dismantling north St. Louis -- brick by brick -- are becoming more daring these days.

Architectural historian Michael Allen, who has perhaps written more than anyone on the subject of brick thievery, notes on his blog that the mason rustlers are now working heavily trafficked streets north of Delmar Boulevard.

"Brick thieves apparently have carte blanche to harvest building stock on the north side's busiest streets," writes Allen, who reports that two abandoned properties on Page and St. Louis avenues have recently been targeted.

"Between these two buildings, the city has lost four housing units that could have been rehabilitated. Extend that count across every building hit by brick theft in the last seven years, and we have lost at least 200 housing units," adds Allen.

Ferguson believes the thieves were looking to make a quick buck off the copper inside the air conditioners.

Cannon Balls

"Cannon Balls Stolen from War Memorial" (Portsmouth Patch)

Portsmouth Police, Public Works probe theft of several pieces of Soldiers and Sailors Goodwin Park statue and estimated damage of $10,000.

The city Public Works Department and Police are probing the attempted theft of cannon balls and several other metal pieces from the Soldiers and Sailors war memorial in Goodwin Park.

Public Works Director Steve Parkinson said Friday morning police discovered the theft and vandalism to the 1888 war memorial to Civil War soldiers and sailors last weekend after they received a call from New Castle Police.

Police learned that the replica cannon balls that sit on top of a metal box were dumped in New Castle near the Wentworth Marina sometime last Saturday.

"We went out there and checked out the statue and sure enough the metal box and cannon balls were cut off," Parkinson said.

Beehives

"Houston Police Search for Beehive Thieves" (Houston Chronicle)

Police continue their search for suspects who stole a 3-foot-tall active beehive from a Houston restaurant.

KHOU and KTRK reported on the incident, which took place over the weekend at Haven, located off Kirby.

Security cameras revealed the thieves toting away the hive from behind the restaurant early Saturday morning.

The structure houses about 5,000 bees and is worth $1,000, according to Haven’s chef, Randy Evans.

Evans’ farm-to-table restaurant relies on local ingredients and uses the beehive to pollinate plants and produce honey.

He told KHOU he believes the bandits knew what they were doing.

“”You’re not going to just pull up to a bee hive and move it. They came in at night, when it was cold and wet. Bees are the most docile at that time. They’re going to stay huddled up in their hive, on top of one another, creating heat to stay warm and stay dry,” he said.

Hair weaves

"SFPD Seeking Brazen Hair Weave Thieves" (San Francisco Appeal)

They came in for locks of hair, but now one of them is locked up.

One woman was arrested and three others remain outstanding after they allegedly went into a San Francisco beauty supply store, cut hair weaves from a display case and then fled on Wednesday evening, a police spokesman said.

The robbery was reported at about 6:30 p.m. at the Sally Beauty Supply store at 2675 Geary Blvd., in the old Sears/Mervyns shopping complex.

The suspects walked into the store and surrounded the area where the hair weaves are displayed. A store employee tried to intervene after she noticed one of the suspects had some sort of box cutter or knife that she was using to cut the weaves off of the display, police spokesman Officer Carlos Manfredi said.

It's a good thing the economy is "recovering." Otherwise, I'd hate to think about what might be targeted next.

Already There?

Five more reasons why America is on the road to Banana Republicville (or are we already there?):

1. Those in charge don't feel constrained by the rules that apply to everyone else

"36 Obama Aides Owe $833,000 in Back Taxes" (Investors Business Daily)

How embarrassing this must be for President Obama, whose major speech theme so far this campaign season has been that every single American, no matter how rich, should pay their "fair share" of taxes.

Because how unfair -- indeed, un-American -- it is for an office worker like, say, Warren Buffet's secretary to dutifully pay her taxes, while some well-to-do people with better educations and higher incomes end up paying a much smaller tax rate.

Or, worse, skipping their taxes altogether.

A new report just out from the Internal Revenue Service reveals that 36 of President Obama's executive office staff owe the country $833,970 in back taxes. These people working for Mr. Fair Share apparently haven't paid any share, let alone their fair share.

Previous reports have shown how well-paid Obama's White House staff is, with 457 aides pulling down more than $37 million last year. That's up seven workers and nearly $4 million from the Bush administration's last year.

Nearly one-third of Obama's aides make more than $100,000 with 21 being paid the top White House salary of $172,200, each.

2. Those in charge increasingly censor and harass the media

"U.S Falls to 47th in Press Freedom Rankings after Occupy Crackdown" (Daily Mail)

Sweeping protests around the world made it an extremely difficult year for the media, and tested journalists as never before, the annual report into press freedom reveals.

The annual report by Reporters Without Borders has been released, showing the United States fell 27 points on the list due to the many arrests of journalists covering Occupy Wall Street protests.

The slide in the United States places it just behind Comoros and Taiwan in a group with Argentina and Romania.

3. Those in charge feel free to use public funds for private gain

"Parent Of Government-Backed Battery Maker Goes Bankrupt" (Associated Press)

The parent company of an electric car battery maker that received a $118 million grant from the Obama administration filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday.

New York-based Ener1 said it has been affected by competition from China and other countries.

Ener1 subsidiary EnerDel received a $118 million stimulus grant from the Energy Department in 2009, and Vice President Joe Biden visited the company's new battery plant in Indiana last year.

Ener1 is the third company to seek bankruptcy protection after receiving assistance from the Energy Department under the economic stimulus law. California solar panel maker Solyndra Inc. and Beacon Power, a Massachusetts energy-storage firm, declared bankruptcy last year. Solyndra received a $528 million federal loan, while Beacon Power got a $43 million loan guarantee.

4. Those in charge favor policies that benefit the few at the expense of the many

"How to Elude the Fed's Attack on Savers" (MarketWatch)

On the surface, the Fed's decision to keep rates at 300-year lows was spun as an effort to help the U.S. stay in its slow grind higher. But from a personal-finance standpoint, it is one of the most outrageous ripoffs of all time -- a massive theft from the savers and retirees of this country for the benefit of banks and big business.

You might think of Fed chief Ben Bernanke as a reverse Robin Hood -- stealing the savings from the older people who built this country into the powerhouse that it is today and giving it to enterprises that absolutely, positively do not need interest rates near zero to make their businesses work. And if they do, they don't deserve help anyway.

If you have money in a passbook savings account or certificate of deposit, or in Treasurys, as so many retirees do, then the Fed's decision Wednesday ensures that for the next two years, banks and the federal government will pay you less than 1%, which is in turn eroded by inflation, leaving you with -1%. You are thus essentially paying the banks to take your money, which they then pay to themselves as bonuses and lend primarily to the most creditworthy of their cronies, not to the small businesses that actually could use a hand.

Even worse, a lot of the savings that you are lending the banks and government for pennies under the zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP, is being shipped to Europe in the form of "swaps" and other arcane instruments they don't want you to understand to help bail out holders of Greek, Portuguese, Italian and Spanish debt.

5. Those in charge seek to keep greater tabs on what the masses are doing

"Drones: Another Tool of the Surveillance State" (The New American)

Evidence that New York City is considering using drones to keep an eye on its citizens is growing, according to Don Dahler of New York’s CBS Channel 2. Dahler quoted an email it obtained indicating that a detective in the New York Police Department’s counterterrorism division asked the Federal Aviation Administration “about the use of unmanned aerial vehicles [UAVs] as a law enforcement tool.”

Dahler noted that NYPD commissioner Joe Kelly suggested that drones would be useful: “In an extreme situation, you would [then] have some means to take down a plane.” A spokesman for the NYPD admitted that “We’re always looking at technology. Drones aren’t that exotic anymore. Brookstone sells them. We’ve looked at them but haven’t tested or deployed any [yet].”

A retired officer from the department said that the use of drones would help protect the police from physical danger: “Not only would it be a form of surveillance gathering to protect the public, it also in many respects removes the officers … from harm’s way.”

...

Drones are increasingly being used for citizen surveillance. Retired General Michael Kostelnik heads up the office that supervises the use of drones and said drones are routinely being used across the country. Predators are flown “in many areas around the country, not only for federal operators, but also for state and local law enforcement and emergency responders in times of crisis.”

Stay tuned for the next installment -- coming soon.

A Widespread Loss of Faith

In "Americans’ Confidence in Its Leaders Hits New Low," Bill George details the (largely unsurprising) results of a new poll:

The 2011 National Leadership Index indicates that Americans’ confidence in its leaders has hit new low points: the overall index has fallen from 101.4 in 2005 to 89.4 in this month’s survey, even below the 2008 level in the midst of the financial meltdown. (100 is the normative level of confidence.)

The index is highly reliable as it is based on interviews of 1,065 Americans and conducted by the Center for Public Leadership, headed by Professor David Gergen at Harvard Kennedy School. These results are very worrisome to me, as without trust and confidence in our leaders, America cannot recover the energy and optimism required to restore its domestic economy and global leadership.

The survey indicates that 77% of Americans believe the U.S. has a leadership crisis. Without better leaders, America will decline as a nation, according to 77% of those interviewed. Seventy-six percent disagree with the proposition that our country’s leaders are effective and do a good job.

I would take things one step further than Professor George: history -- including recent developments overseas -- suggests that when you combine a widespread loss of faith in the-powers-that-be with growing inequality, increasing corruption, and deteriorating economic circumstances, it can lead to something else: a revolution.

More Trouble to Come

One key theme of my last two books, Financial Armageddon (published in 2007) and When Giants Fall (published in 2009), was that we could expect to see a dramatic increase in social instability and political upheaval in the years ahead.

Given what has happened over the past 12 months or so, that looks to have been a prescient forecast.

But it really wasn't rocket science. It was simply a matter of looking back in time and noting the strong historical relationship between economic circumstances and social conditions, especially in regards to the downside.

As it happens, a chart included in Control Risks' just published Riskmap 2012: Tales of the Unexpected, tells a similar story -- one that is not at all encouraging for those who believe the worst is behind us.

Inside and Out

As the world careens headlong into financial Armageddon 2.0, here's what's happening in our nation's capital:

"Obama Pardons Holiday Turkeys, Pokes Fun at Media" (Reuters)

It may not help the economy, but President Barack Obama found another move he can make without congressional approval on Wednesday: pardon a turkey.

Obama, a Democrat, has spent the last several weeks criticizing the Congress and Republicans for not embracing his jobs proposals, launching a "We Can't Wait" campaign to highlight executive actions he was taking to boost the economy without lawmakers' input.

With tongue in cheek, the president brought the same logic -- minus the economic incentive -- to the annual White House ritual of sparing a turkey.

...

"Some of you may know that recently I've been taking a series of executive actions that don't require congressional approval," Obama told a chuckling crowd at the White House, with his daughters standing at his side.

"Well, here's another one. We can't wait to pardon these turkeys. Literally. Otherwise, they'd end up next to the mashed potatoes and stuffing."

Obama, grinning, raised his hand over one bird, dubbed "Liberty," and pronounced it safe from slaughter.

Outside the Washington Beltway, meanwhile, the mood is a little different:

"Survival Shop Reports Jump In Sales To People Preparing For 'Possible Collapse'" (KMOX)

WEBSTER GROVES, MO - A chain of three stores that sells survival food and gear reports a jump in sales to people who are getting prepared for the “possible collapse” of society.

“We had to order fifty cases of the meals ready to eat to keep up with the demand in the past three months,” said manager Steve Dorsey at Uncle Sam’s Safari Outfitters Inc. in Webster Groves. “That’s not normal.  Usually we sell 20 to 30 cases in a whole year."

Dorsey says business has been brisk since the spring uprisings in the middle east, as customers share concerns about political uprisings, the world economy and the future of the United States.

“I’ve had people in here that are very wealthy and they’ve spent thousands of dollars just on backpacks that they fill with survival gear, one for each person of their family,” Dorsey said, “And something where they can just grab a bag and get out of Dodge.”

Up and Down

It's been said that alcohol and sex are not a good mix. If the following reports are any guide, it appears that the bad economy is leading many people to take that message to heart.

1. "U.S. Alcohol Consumption Hits 25-Year High" (Fox News)

Economy plays a role in booze business

The booze business is recession proof, just ask your neighborhood bartender. They know the following to be true: When times are good, people enjoy a cocktail. When times are rough, people enjoy two cocktails. A recent Gallup poll shows alcohol consumption hit a 25-year high in 2010, with 67 percent of Americans reporting drinking alcoholic beverages. This number approaches the all-time booze benchmark of 71 percent set in the 1970s.

Many believe the economy can contribute to the rise in alcohol consumption, but perhaps not in the obvious way. A poor economy may not drive the masses to drink, but it sure gives people the extra time to have an adult beverage or two – especially if they have lost their job or are staying at home on weekends to save cash.

2. "Is Economy Best Birth Control? US Births Dip Again" (Associated Press)

The economy may well be the best form of birth control. U.S. births dropped for the third straight year — especially for young mothers — and experts think money worries are the reason.

A federal report released Thursday showed declines in the birth rate for all races and most age groups. Teens and women in their early 20s had the most dramatic dip, to the lowest rates since record-keeping began in the 1940s. Also, the rate of cesarean sections stopped going up for the first time since 1996.

Experts suspected the economy drove down birth rates in 2008 and 2009 as women put off having children. With the 2010 figures, suspicion has turned into certainty.

"I don't think there's any doubt now that it was the recession. It could not be anything else," said Carl Haub, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington, D.C.-based research organization. He was not involved in the new report.

Darker Times

In my 2007 book, Financial Armageddon, I suggested that cash-strapped governments would have little choice but to cut back on essential services, putting citizens' safety and well-being at risk. A report by Detroit's WWJ-TV, "DTE Repossesses Highland Park’s Street Lights," details the kind of thing we can expect to occur more broadly in the months and years ahead:

HIGHLAND PARK – Street lights in cash-strapped Highland Park are the target of the repo man.

WWJ’s Ron Dewey reports that not only have they turned out the lights around Highland Park, DTE Energy has also removed the light bulbs in 1,400 light poles. This, as part of a settlement that lets the city avoid paying $4 million in unpaid bills going back several years.

DTE spokesperson Len Singer said the deal saves Highland Park about $50,000 each month. Where the lights are still on, DTE has replaced 200 of them with newer, higher efficiency versions.

“At the direction of the city we have removed most of those street lights and before we did we had put in replacement lights, about 200 new lights, primarily at street corners and intersections,” Singer said.

“The new lights that were put in are state-of-the-art lights. They’re much more efficient than the models that were in there before, and they’re also fed by overhead lines as opposed to underground circuits, making them easier to maintain and much more efficient,” he said.

However, residents complain that most neighborhoods are still in the dark, raising concerns about crime and safety.

Resident Kenneth Miller said the streets are pitch dark, making it very unsafe.

“Here comes a couple of children right now, on their way to school,” Miller told WWJ Tuesday morning. “There’s no lights. They just have to take a chance on walking down the street … so they can get on the bus or walk to school.”

(I guess it's only a matter of time before the phrase "I've got a bridge to sell you" is anything but a joke?)

More and More Like the Real Thing

Is America under siege?

Perhaps not in the literal sense (yet). But this scary-looking chart, which comes from a new report published by Colgen LP, "Texas Border Security: A Strategic Military Assessment," detailing the extent to which Mexican criminal gangs have infiltrated the United States, suggests the violent and chaotic "war" on our southern flank is looking more and more like the real thing.

With that in mind, the report, written by General Barry McCaffrey, Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President Bill Clinton, and Major-General Robert Scales, former Commandant of the United States Army War College, offers a military perspective on how to secure the increasingly hostile border regions along the Rio Grande River.

Here's an excerpt from the Executive Summary:

During the past two years the state of Texas has become increasingly threatened by the spread of Mexican cartel organized crime. The threat reflects a change in the strategic intent of the cartels to move their operations into the United States. In effect, the cartels seek to create a “sanitary zone” inside the Texas border -- one county deep -- that will provide sanctuary from Mexican law enforcement and, at the same time, enable the cartels to transform Texas’ border counties into narcotics transshipment points for continued transport and distribution into the continental United States. To achieve their objectives the cartels are relying increasingly on organized gangs to provide expendable and unaccountable manpower to do their dirty work. These gangs are recruited on the streets of Texas cities and inside Texas prisons by top-tier gangs who work in conjunction with the cartels.

Strategic, Operational and Tactical Levels of Conflict

The authors of this report, both retired senior military executives bring more than 80 years of military and governmental service to their perspective on Texas border security viewed in terms of the classic levels of conflict: strategic, operational and tactical.

Strategic

America’s fight against narco-terrorism, when viewed at the strategic level, takes on the classic trappings of a real war. Crime, gangs and terrorism have converged in such a way that they form a collective threat to the national security of the United States. America is being assaulted not just from across our southern border but from across the hemisphere and beyond. All of Central and South America have become an interconnected source of violence and terrorism. Drug cartels exploit porous borders using all the traditional elements of military force, including command and control, logistics, intelligence, information operations and the application of increasingly deadly firepower. The intention is to increasingly bring governments at all levels throughout the Americas under the influence of international cartels.

Operational

In the United States the operational level of the campaign against cartel terrorism is manifested at the state. Texas has become critical terrain and operational ground zero in the cartel’s effort to expand into the United States. Texas has an expansive border with drug cartels controlling multiple shipping lanes into the state. Texas’ location as the geographic center of the U.S. allows for easier distribution of drugs and people. In effect, the fight for control of the border counties along the Rio Grande has become the operational center of gravity for the cartels and federal, state and local forces that oppose them.

Tactical

At the tactical level of war the cartels seek to gain advantage by exploiting the creases between U.S. federal and state border agencies, and the separation that exists between Mexican and American crime-fighting agencies. Border law enforcement and political officials are the tactical focal point. Sadly, the tactical level is poorly resourced and the most vulnerable to corruption by cartels. To win the tactical fight the counties must have augmentation, oversight and close support from operational and strategic forces. History has shown that a common border offers an enemy sanctuary zone and the opportunity to expand his battlespace in depth and complexity. Our border with Mexico is no exception. Criminality spawned in Mexico is spilling over into the United States. Texas is the tactical close combat zone and frontline in this conflict. Texans have been assaulted by cross-border gangs and narco-terrorist activities. In response, Texas has been the most aggressive and creative in confronting the threat of what has come to be a narco-terrorist military-style campaign being waged against them.

Click here to read the rest.

(Hat tip to War News Updates.)

We're Number...?

 
(Image: source)

Hold on...let me start with the fingers on my left hand...one, two, three, four, five...now on to the other ...six, seven, eight, nine, ten...and then to my right foot...eleven, twelve, thirteen...aw, forget it -- we're just too far down the list to matter.

Didn't we used to need only one hand -- or just a few fingers -- to figure out where we stood in comparison to everyone else?

"Can the US Compete if Only 32 Percent of Its Students Are Proficient in Math?" (Christian Science Monitor)

Among the top-scoring places in the world that participated in a recent exam, math proficiency of 15-year-olds was well above 50 percent. One US state, Massachusetts, cleared that mark, barely.

Jeremy Kennefick leads an eighth-grade science class at Normandin Middle School. New Bedford, Massachusetts in 2008.

What do Massachusetts, Switzerland, and Singapore have in common? Their students are among the top performers in the world when it comes to mathematical proficiency.

As for the rest of the United States, the comparison is more bleak, according to a new report: The US ranked 32nd out of 65 countries (or cities such as Shanghai and Hong Kong) that participated in the latest international PISA, an exam administered to representative samples of 15-year-old students by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

To researchers who authored Wednesday’s report – “Globally Challenged: Are U.S. Students Ready to Compete?” – it’s yet another cause for alarm about the ability of the United States to compete on the global economic scene.

“This is an urgent problem.... We cannot continue to ignore the mathematical education of the next generation if we expect to be a ... highly productive society,” said Paul Peterson, a professor of government at Harvard and co-author of the report, in a live webinar Wednesday morning.

How times have changed.

Hand-in-Hand

In "Anarchy and Austerity: Why London Won't Be the Last City to Burn," The Atlantic's Derek Thompson touches upon what has been a key underlying theme of my second book, Financial Armageddon, and my third, When Giants Fall: deteriorating economic circumstances go hand-in-hand with deteriorating social conditions.

The theft and violence and street crime and lawlessness in London is shocking. But it's not unique. Around the world, the burden of unemployment falls hardest on the young, who often respond with violence. The average jobless rate between 18-29 years was nearly 20% last year in OECD countries, the Wall Street Journal has reported. High unemployment was a factor in protests in Spain, uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.

The connection between joblessness and violence comes to life in a timely August research paper Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009, which found "a clear positive correlation between fiscal retrenchment and instability." Authors Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth examined the relationship between spending cuts and a measure of instability they termed CHAOS -- "the sum of demonstrations, riots, strikes, assassinations, and attempted revolutions in a single year in each country."

Their conclusion: Austerity breeds anarchy. More cuts, more crime.This clickable graph helps to tell the story.

Of course, if our government had operated in a more honest and fiscally responsible manner before now, we wouldn't be in the position of having to choose between an austerity-fuelled eruption or a hyperinflation-fuelled meltdown. But it's too late for that now.

The New Reality?

Many people question just how bad social conditions can get if the economy deteriorates further. After all, they say, we live in a civilized society with a safety net that can help those who find themselves in dire straits.

Unfortunately, such views don't necessarily square with reality. Even now, in the midst of a so-called recovery, some urban down-and-outers have decided that a more primitive approach to survival is called for, as the New York Post reports in "'Game' Time in B'klyn":

It's a little slice of Alabama in the middle of Brooklyn.

A pack of vagrants was found living in a makeshift camp alongside the Prospect Park lake, where they poached the local wildlife using cruel hunting methods, officials said yesterday.

The dirty-dozen men and women have spent the last two months on the lake's southern shore near a construction site for a $70 million ice-skating complex.

They have littered the area with beer cans, poaching nets and other trash, with much of the refuse winding up in the lake.

"It's disgusting," said wildlife advocate Johanna Clearfield. "The city doesn't care, because it's the poor side of the park. This wouldn't happen on the Park Slope side or by Grand Army Plaza.

"The most they've done is issue fines to homeless people who can't pay."

The drifters have been illegally trapping and cooking up the critters that call the park home, including squirrels, ducks and swan-like cygnets.

They used crude tactics to hunt their prey, including barbed fishing hooks that ripped off the top half of one poor gosling's beak. They then cooked the meat over illegal fires. Some of the animals were eaten raw.

Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean the streets of New York (and other cities) will be overrun with aggressive hunter-gathers as the economy cycles down. In fact, many of those who see or are worried about hard times ahead have decided to act now. They are stockpiling necessities before the stuff really hits the fan. Unfortunately, as the latest Dilbert cartoon suggests (in Scott Adams' humorous but characteristically spot-on way), that may not be the perfect solution either.